Conspiracy experts will easily give you an answer. The world behind the scenes, all these notable Rockefellers and Rothschilds (the same ones that treacherously manage the blind trust and must deal with Privatbank), Masons and other representatives of the Zionist conspiracy, having solved the issue with the EU and having placed Makron on the throne, have returned to their main problem. And took up Trump. However, Trump is a general problem, - writes Sergey Fursa for NV. - Yes, and the reasons he gave himself. For more than a month nobody remembered the sweet word impeachment. Even thought that the guy understood the rules of the game and integrated. But then suddenly he fired the director of the FBI, who was on the coffin of life owed victory over Hillary, and rushed. And with such a degree of scandal, Mr. Trump has not yet encountered being in the Oval Office, and very many already doubt that he will be able to cope with it.
As a result, conversations about the tramponomy were replaced by trampopany. The best indicator is the dollar rate. The US currency fell sharply against all currencies, even the hryvnia participated in the holiday. And what about the euro? The European currency was already growing, rejoicing at the victory of Macron, but now it drove the dollar, like a little hooligan who came into someone else's yard. By Friday morning, the euro-dollar rate is above the level of 1.11, and for a long time there has been no talk of parity so popular a couple of months ago. The dollar exchange rate came to a mark from which the tramp rally started.
Markets have not lost so much yet. The S & P500 index even went down at a peak on fears (or joys) that Trump might not sit out the first year of his reign, but is still trading high enough and will open Friday at around 2365 points. And speculators are not so worried about Trump himself or his sweet little daughter, after all, most of them live in New York, which means they do not tolerate the spirit of him, how worried about the gingerbread he promised in the form of tax reform and infrastructure Projects (not only the wall with Mexico). If they continue to be projected, it means that you can not see inflation and growth rates, which many managed to put already whole states.
Such a sharp drop in risk appetite could not but affect the emerging markets. Risk - a noble business, but as soon as the smell of fried, there is nothing noble in reducing it. So from the stupidity of Trump (in the Russian spy it is much harder to believe), the Ukrainian Eurobond market also suffered. Not so, of course, as the Brazilian, but those too have problems with the president (already chronic, it seems). The Ukrainian Eurobond market even tried to grow after hearing the news that the government approved a pension reform. But then someone understood that the approval of the government is not yet a vote of the parliament, or the Ukrainian market could not stand the weight of Trump, but prices fell, losing about the point. The yield of the sovereign curve is in the range of 6.5% -8.5%.
And the IMF mission really arrived in Ukraine. Who really will analyze the pension reform under the screams about the genocide of Ukrainians, because everyone knows that if you force a person to work longer than 15 years, this is an obvious genocide. And if you ask him to pay taxes at the same time, it is generally a crime against humanity. Reform as a whole is very much even nothing, but so far the market-specific specifics on the second level of the pension reform. It's kind of understandable that until they put things in order in a solidary system, they'll also launch a cumulative one - deaths are alike, but order has not been set for 20 years already, and market participants are tired of waiting for long money. In general, the hryvnia continued to feel comfortable, and the NBU again bought at auction currency in reserves. And it does not in vain, because wait for the tranche of the IMF should at least until the fall. With such pace of work of the parliament, the reforms needed for the tranche of the reforms can be postponed until the second coming, which in the case of Ukraine is easily called the second term.
On the Ukrainian stock market there was a collapse. The shares of Aval Bank fell sharply, and from the side it might seem that we are on the verge of another banking crisis. After all, when the bank's shares in the civilized world fall by 20% for one trading day, then they are ready to predict the fate of Lehman. But it's there. And in Ukraine everything is much simpler and the answer lies in the word "dividends". Just the cut-off point, when the register is being formed for the payment of more than generous dividends for the year's results, has passed, and they have simply been crossed out of the price. As a result, the UX index trades at around 930 points. It is mysterious why, together with the shares, the futures flew down and into which no dividends were included, but these are already features of Ukrainian investment. And in Ukraine there was an investment conference sponsored by one of the issuers of Eurobonds.
The latter reasonably decided that if you have a choice, to pay investors a coupon or arrange an investment conference, then it is better to make a conference. Cheerful though.
"A truly strong person does not need the approval of others any more than a lion needs the approval of a sheep.
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