German Chancellor Angela Merkel Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the elections to the regional parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia. This victory, according to analysts, makes the ruling party the main contender for victory in the autumn elections to the Bundestag.
In the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU, headed by Armin Lashat, received 33% of the vote. The main competitors of the conservatives - the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) - gained 31.5% of the percentage. Liberals from the Free Democratic Party enlisted the support of 12.7% of voters, populist "Alternative for Germany" (AdG) received 7.3%, Soyuz-90 / "green" - 6.3%. The left party did not go to the Landtag, gaining only 4.8% of the required 5%.
The elections turned out to be an unexpected failure for the SPD, which most analysts on the eve of voting gave the victory. After the fiasco, the head of the land government, Hannelore Kraft, announced her resignation from the post of the SPDG vice chairman and chairman of the regional party branch. Compared with the result of past elections, the party lost more than 8 percentage points of votes. In this region the Social Democrats have dominated since 1966. , With the exception of the break from 2005 to 2010.
German experts note that the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (the most populated region of Germany) are considered the main test before the elections to the Bundestag. The success of the CDU is due to Angela Merkel, who, despite the loss of personal popularity, managed at the last moment to reverse the course of the pre-election race.
The outcome of land elections was predetermined by the international theme, rather than by regional issues. The commoners do not like Merkel's deliberate hospitality in relation to Middle Eastern migrants. Criminogenic situation in German cities in the last two years has deteriorated noticeably. However, even less people in North Rhine-Westphalia like destabilization in the European Union against the backdrop of Brexit, the growing popularity of populists in Poland, Hungary, France and the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump, who made it clear that he is not interested in a united Europe. All this has caused quite passive voters in this region to mobilize around Angela Merkel, which is at least balancing all these challenges and dangers. The reputation of the anchor of European stability returned to her.
Fear of shocks turned voters away from radical parties. They are grouped around the political center and the party they trust most - the CDU. The Social Democrats, who were supposed to seize the political palm in Germany this year, failed at the third consecutive regional elections (before that there were Saar and Schleswig-Holstein). In all three cases, the party was celebrated by Merkel, and in two regions it was considered an outsider.
Political scientists note that the outcome of the final battle for the Bundestag, which will be held in September, is not yet predetermined. However, the candidate from the SPD, Martin Schultz, who was recently considered the main contender for the post of Chancellor, will be extremely difficult. In February, after Schulz left the post of the head of the European Parliament and registered as the leader of the party list, the ratings of the SPD were equaled with the CDU. Now the Christian democrats have regained their former separation from the persecutor (37% against 27%). By and large, the Social Democrats have not succeeded in making anything on the "Schulz effect".
If the situation in the North Rhine-Westphalia elections continues at the federal level, the CDU may have to create a coalition to form a government with the Free Democratic Party and the "green". This potential alliance has already been dubbed the Jamaica project - in the colors of the three parties (black, yellow and green) that repeat the colors of the Jamaican flag. Critics call such an association unviable - too different agendas for members of a potential coalition. However, it is possible that in another composition the coalition will not be able to form.