German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently announced that Turkish citizens residing in Germany will not be allowed to take part in the referendum on the return of the death penalty in their homeland. Germany "categorically rejects" the death penalty, the Chancellor said..
According to observers, this decision can cause a political scandal and even an international crisis, even to the severance of relations between the two countries, but Germany in this sense is not alone: ??Austria intends to join the decision of the Germans, similar sentiments reign in Holland and Belgium.
In fact, another demarche of Europeans is directed not so much against the death penalty as such (quite democratic America, as you know, it practices, and 57% of white Americans, according to recent polls, support it), so much against Erdogan. According to experts, this position is difficult to call strategically thoughtful - rather, it resembles the reaction of an amoeba to an external stimulus. Europe is trying to demonstrate to its voters the ability to fully resist the hated dictator, who, as the Europeans themselves admit, still enjoys the immense support of the Turkish diasporas in the EU.
Therefore, among European elites, it seems, the tactics of "petty sabotage" of official Ankara are firmly rooted in and about. On the one hand, the attempts of the European authorities to withdraw from its influence the largest and most consolidated Turkish diaspora in Germany can be regarded as a blow directly to the President of Turkey. On the other hand, Erdogan will extract from this situation what is always: personal political gain and consolidation of power. As the recent constitutional referendum in Turkey showed, so far this process is quite successful, and the external enemy in the face of Europe is to a large extent contributing to this.
Nevertheless, since after the April referendum, Turkey was largely split, the task of consolidating power acquires a new incentive for Erdogan. The president can do this either by the "grandfather method", by means of an external enemy (and Europe is persistently asking for this role again and again), or with the help of some small victorious war. The second option already tried to use in Syria, but the "Shield of the Euphrates" did not work. It turned out that due to various objective and subjective reasons, the Turkish army is not ready now to conduct serious military operations outside its country.
Therefore, another demarche of Europe was very useful. Erdogan uses pressure to demonstrate the fidelity of his policy, will justify it with the interests of protecting the sovereignty of the country, unwillingness to continue sitting on the threshold on the side table waiting for an invitation to the EU and other popular materials. At the same time, the conviction that the West is using Turkey, with completely incongruous methods and options, is getting stronger in the Turkish media.
The EU, in turn, is gradually losing its former influence, is becoming weaker, including due to an internal dispute with Turkey, which, not being a member of the EU, still remains not the last member of NATO. Periodical conversations about Turkey's accession to the CSTO or the SCO are still perceived by observers as "horror stories", but on the other hand, one must take into account the huge potential for discontent with respect to the policy of Brussels that has accumulated in Turkish society.
The experts state that there is simply no serious strategic policy of Brussels, and Turkey also, today it is an "intellectual desert", and even American policy in its current flawed version, with complete uncertainty in a number of directions, looks more advantageous against it European policy. And all these potential points in favor of Erdogan.
One way or another, judging by the rhetoric of recent months, in the confrontation with European leaders, the Turkish leadership is ready to go far enough without even taking Brussels seriously. The game promises to drag out, but without any unexpected twists and turns: Europe will continue to show its disagreement with the totalitarianism and authoritarianism of Erdogan, and he, in his inherent manner, will continue to make political dividends on this.