According to a public opinion poll conducted by OpinionWay and ORPI, in the second round of the presidential elections in France, the founder of the "Forward!" Movement Emmanuel Macron will win - 61% of voters will vote for him. Head of the "National Front" Marin Le Pen can count on 39% of the vote.
Following the results of the first round, Makron scored 23.75% of the vote, Le Pen - 21.53%. Candidate from the party "Republicans", former Prime Minister Francois Fillon and leader of the movement "Unconquered France" Jean-Luc Melanchon leave the presidential race with the results of about 19%.
Can Le Pen in the second round count on the support of voters of retired candidates, a controversial issue. Head of its headquarters David Rashlin on the radio station Europe1 this did not rule out, noting that Le Pen "is able to unite" the French voters who do not share in their majority the ideas of its rival. She herself stated that the first stage, which should lead to the Elysee Palace, was passed, and called the exit into the second round a "historic result", which placed on her "colossal responsibility for the protection of the French nation, for its security, culture, prosperity and independence ". "This is an act of French pride. The people of France looked up. He is confident in his values ??and is aware of his future, "Le Pen told teammates at the headquarters of the election campaign in the town of Henin-Beaumont in the department of the Pas de Calais. The current French President Francois Hollande made a lot of mistakes during his five-year reign, she said, calling this period "catastrophic". According to the candidate, "the French should take advantage of the opportunity that has opened before them".
However, Russian experts are sure that now all forces will rally against Le Pen, and it will be very difficult to overcome them.
The exit of the leader of the National Front in the second round was quite expected, said political scientist, historian, president of the Moscow Center for the Study of Public Law Ajdar Kurtov. Marin Le Pen personifies the discontent of the French with the state of affairs that emerged during the time when the socialists were in power, and the sad results for a number of traditional political parties testify to this discontent,.
At the same time, it was difficult to reach the second round of Le Pen, because the main efforts of its competitors were concentrated against it. She was not wanted and does not want to be seen at the head of the French Republic, and now, between the first and second round, the efforts of competitors Marin Le Pen, their sponsors and interested persons from abroad will be consolidated to avoid her victory at any cost. Even the different competitors on their political platforms Le Pen already call on their supporters to vote against it, for Macron.
The latter, being not a very popular candidate from the party, which was not traditional for the French political system, looks rather strange, Ajdar Kurtov said.. "This is some kind of artificial construction, hastily hammered together and having obvious defects in the sense of ideology and program. It can be assumed that this candidate was designed by political strategists precisely to prevent Le Pen's victory and to soften the moods of Euroscepticism, the frustration in the pan-European politics emanating from Brussels, which now reign in France from part of the political elite and society. All this threatens the repetition of the experience of Britain on leaving the EU, it is no accident that the term "freksite" arose, "said the expert" Utru ".
Accordingly, the clash of these two candidates in the second round will lead to the mobilization of powerful financial, administrative, media resources against Le Pen and make her victory difficult. This has happened in the past with her father, when he also won in the first round, but in the second, considerable efforts were made against him. "I think that now will unleash a rabid campaign to blacken Marin Le Pen in order to discredit her, and this will play a role. Apparently, it is unlikely that Macron is able to outplay her in a fair competition. But if it wins, it will be to a certain extent a miracle and will dramatically change the fate of France, "said the political scientist..
The victory of Macron does not mean anything good: he can not be an effective president, and France, most likely, will continue in one form or another the course that led her into the current bleak state, the expert believes.. The political force behind it is also unlikely to be transformed into something long-lasting.
Two other things are interesting: why should France not repeat the experience of the United States in the second round, where in a similar situation the victory nevertheless went to the non-system Trump, and what to expect from Russia (if we assume that his victory is almost predetermined)?.
Precisely because it became possible in America, the European political forces and the financial circles behind them who do not want sharp changes in policy from unpredictable and impulsive heads of state will not want to step on the same rake-they learn from mistakes, Ajdar Kurtov points out..
In addition, the French system differs from the American one, where two candidates compete, while others act as extras who do not stand a chance of a real victory. And this state of affairs in the US remains - the Republicans continue to compete with the Democrats. In France, however, there is now a reformatting of the political system and landscape, new major political forces are emerging, and traditional parties are wasting their electoral resource. It is no coincidence that many candidates during the current election campaign announced the need to rewrite the current Constitution and actually change the form of government, adjusting the powers of the head of state and parliament. Under such conditions, forces that do not want radical changes are consolidated. "In France, we are witnessing just such a process - the fear of abrupt changes, which will lead to Le Pen's in all conceivable and unimaginable ways that will not allow him to enter the Elysee Palace," the UT's interlocutor emphasizes,.
As for Russia's expectations, the victory of Macron does not promise her good prospects, rather, it will mean freezing Russian-French relations, and statements from the candidate's headquarters in this regard should not be believed, the expert believes..
On the one hand, as the general delegate of the Vperyod movement Stefan Traver told RIA Novosti, "it is necessary to leave ties and bridges with Russia, it is necessary to discuss with Russia all the issues, none of the topics should become taboo - it should be honest and warm , Cordial relations with Russia, which will help solve problems ".
On the other hand, in his election campaign, Macron played on the opposition of his goals to the goals of the main opponent - while Le Pen clearly supports the improvement of relations with the Russian Federation, Makron, accordingly, speaks from the transatlantic positions. In this context, the statements of his staff cause skepticism, according to Azhdar Kurtov. The purpose of such statements is to smash the electorate of Marin Le Pen, to pull his part over himself, showing that Macron is for friendship with the Russian Federation.
"But these statements are made not even on behalf of the first person participating in the presidential race, but on behalf of some other functionaries. In addition, during this period of time you can not trust the statements: if you evaluate all of Makron's statements in aggregate, before nominating him, while he was in charge of some administrative posts and in the pre-election period, then there are still more negative sentences for Russian politics and Plots, than positive ", - the analyst has summed up.