Before Ukraine had time to start exporting electricity, it immediately began to be divided. There is nothing surprising in this. The favorite occupation of the Ukrainian official is the distribution of flows. And not simple, but correct.

European markets now have extremely tasty prices, three times higher than in Ukraine.

And in connection with the war, our electricity consumption fell by about a third. There is a surplus of electricity that can be profitably sold. Announced possible foreign exchange earnings up to $2 billion. a year is impressive.

And, of course, how can such a flow be left without sensitive attention and... distribution. “Yes, you hold us for suckers? Therefore, the first still modest deliveries of electricity to Romania, Slovakia and Poland did not have time to begin, when the Ministry of Energy immediately began to create a new, and a little bit exclusive, trader for the process. Naturally, all this is in defense and for the benefit of the interests of the state..

At the start of exports, this possibility was already discussed, at the same time a very clear answer was given: exports will be possible only if European rules are observed and there are transparent and non-discriminatory auctions for the sale of access to interstate cross-sections. And if we do not follow the rules of the game, then we will not work on the European market.. And it seems like understandable conditions, and the first auctions were quite successful and transparent. But no, it would be too easy to play by the rules.

According to Energy Minister German Galushchenko, a powerful state trader will be created on the basis of the half-forgotten Energy Company of Ukraine JSC (ECU). Therefore, they transferred the ECU to the Ministry of Economy from the Ministry of Energy, in order " And stay competitive. In general, wow!

The joke of humor is that an attempt to create a centralized trade in state electricity has already been. This was done by Energoatom. She was remembered for continuous scandals around sales at wild discounts to the right companies (primarily DTEK and structures from Kolomoisky's orbit), continuous changes in leadership and other. However, it was not really a rake run.. The trader had good salaries and staff three times more than competitors. The right people got cheap electricity, and outsiders were driven away almost with a stick. Solid profit.

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Now the second entry, already with access to the international level.

The ministry’s statement that the trader “will be the same market participant as any other” sounds ironic, since at the same time it is noted that state generation will be the key supplier of electricity for him. This is also Energoatom (now it also has direct sales contracts to Moldova), they will try to put Ukrhydroenergo under control. In general, all the most delicious.

The ECU company itself was not involved in electricity, and in general, in recent years, in fact, the remnants of the skin remained from it.

But it can be fixed. At the end of June, Vitaly Butenko, who was previously engaged in trading with Rinat Akhmetov, was appointed the head of the company.. No one doubts his professionalism.. He also has experience in trading (importing) electricity from Belarus (and even his own company for this).

Although he had to leave DTEK after an unsuccessful gas trade (they missed the prospect of prices on the gas market). Then he was going to take up the development of bookstores. But plans have obviously changed..

After the start of exports, plans were announced to increase sales by 8–10 times by the end of the year (800–1000 MW). In the coming weeks, they will reach 200, and maybe even 300 MW, we note, even without a wise guest trader. In the future, volumes may be higher than 2000 MW, but a number of export transmission lines will need to be restored. Work is already underway to restore the line to the Polish Rzeszow from the Khmelnytsky NPP.

So a lot of work. Those who want to fall into the source of possible income, too. There is no doubt about the high professionalism in terms of division... But there are nuances. Energy is not only the regulation of flows, but their very existence.

Now it's summer. In winter, the balance will be somewhat different.. How "

There are different options. Experts expect the load of the power system at the level of 16–18 million kW. This is 30-40% less than in recent years. Russian aggression has created a situation where part of the key capacities are located in the occupied territory.

First of all, we are talking about the most powerful Zaporizhzhya NPP in Europe (six units of 1000 MW each) and the Zaporizhzhya TPP located in the same place (available capacity of 1200 MW), as well as the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

The main balance for the winter now includes three ZNPP units (out of six). However, the invaders have repeatedly announced plans to withdraw them from the energy system of Ukraine before winter.. And some work to connect the Zaporizhzhya NPP with the Crimea (through the Kakhovka energy center) is already underway. An optical fiber cable is also being pulled to the station from Melitopol to transmit data directly to Russian dispatchers. Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can “correct” these plans to zero, but all scenarios have to be taken into account.

In the area of \u200b\u200bUglegorsk TPP, there are many days of close battles, cannonade is heard near the Slavyansk TPP. Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region has been disconnected from our energy system since May.

For " Will run in cropped mode at reduced power, but no one can guarantee how long.

So whether there will be special surpluses for exports in winter, another question.

It's too early to spend money.

The situation with thermal power plants is even more difficult.. It is already clear that there will be no 19 billion cubic meters in underground gas storage facilities by winter (now there are not even 12 billion). With an accumulation rate of one billion cubic meters per month, by December we will reach 15–15.5 billion.

The Russians are already openly disrupting natural gas supplies to Europe in order to make it as difficult as possible to accumulate reserves there for the winter.. There is simply no one to buy gas there. At the same time, transit through us has been reduced to a minimum. It is almost three times less than the contract (40 million cubic meters per day instead of 109 million).

According to Galushchenko, plans for the accumulation of 19 billion cubic meters were made " " There is no economy, with a gas price of $ 1,800. per thousand cubic meters, using it to generate electricity is already a last resort when a national security issue arises, ”explains the minister.

Everything is just like that. But the main Kyiv thermal power plants on gas. Like Kharkov.

Remains coal. It is necessary to stock up at least 2.0-2.5 million tons of coal before winter. And preferably your. The current option to import up to a million tons of gas coal with unloaded Pavlograd and stocked warehouses in Dobropolye does not look very good. Buy imported at a price of 320-350 dollars. per ton at an internal price of 3500 UAH is not very rational. And the search for solutions is precisely the task of both the ministries and the Cabinet of Ministers. With the same “Dobropolugol” (which was returned to the state at the beginning of 2021), the Ministry of Energy still cannot establish work.

In the meantime, we are listening to the next plans that thermal power plants (including private ones) will be transferred from anthracite to gas group of coals “where possible”. Few argue. But before winter, this is almost impossible anywhere, although work really needs to be done.. Even the day before yesterday.

As of mid-July, the Headquarters of the Cabinet of Ministers for preparing for winter estimated the work carried out for the autumn-winter period as completed by a third. A little, to put it mildly.. And military time.

It seems like there is something to do with the Ministry of Energy. Agree, to put it mildly, it’s not up to the issues of exporting electricity, creating a state trader and trying to “redivide” the market in their favor. But no, " Hope that the war will write everything off. It happens differently....

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Read more articles by Igor Maskalevich at the link.