In 2026, the hryvnia will show a moderate devaluation - more than 5% since the beginning of the year. Let's look at the key reasons for this weakening, what factors influence it, and what will happen next.

The following is the text in the original language. The first and key factor is war. Russia's large-scale aggression continues to destroy Ukraine's economic potential. The decline in energy and transport infrastructure directly affects the foreign exchange market: the country is hesitant to import more energy resources, possession and critical goods. Significant foreign exchange resources will also be directly spent on defense and the purchase of essential products beyond the border.

Another factor is the structural imbalance of foreign trade. Imports outweigh exports, and molded steel becomes a currency. In this case, the import structure is illustrative:.

close to 40% - cars, equipment and transport;

The significant part is energy supplies (gas, naphtha products, electricity);

Also includes chemical products, pharmaceuticals and related products.

This means that imports are of a critical and investment nature (primarily for defense needs). Such imports are inelastic until the exchange rate changes and there cannot be a rapid acceleration without harm to the economy. At the same time, the export of connections through the war and the collapse of port infrastructure. Alternative logistics are more expensive and less competitive.

The third factor is external financing: a temporary decline and further recovery. At the beginning of 2026, international aid obligations have changed significantly, which has put an additional pressure on the foreign exchange market. Suddenly this rizik is already beginning to change.

There are clear signals from the European Union about the renewal of adequate financing already in the current quarter. Ukraine is also investing in the withdrawal of significant resources from the mechanism of the so-called “Credit to support Ukraine” worth up to €90 billion over 2026–2027.

Therefore, the decrease in funding is more likely an hourly lag, rather than a systemic problem. The situation may get worse in the coming months.

The fourth factor is international reserves and NBU policy. Ukraine's international reserves are expected to reach around $52 billion this quarter, and according to the forecast of the National Bank, they may grow to around $65 billion before the end of the year.

It’s not significant, or rather the shortening is not a threat. I’ll guess, reserves are being used to smooth exchange rates, balance the market and support macro-financial stability.

This itself allows for the avoidance of sharp devaluation shocks and the streamlining of inflationary and devaluation fluctuations.

The fifth factor is global shocks. The geopolitical tension at the Closed Convergence led not only to an increase in energy prices, but also to an increase in prices for a wide range of related goods. This will lead to losses for businesses and importers and for the balance of payments of Ukraine.

Nowadays, the US dollar traditionally rises in the minds of global instability, and most currencies of the world, including the hryvnia, are weakening as of late.

The sixth factor is the awareness of the population and business. There was a fear of a further decline in devaluation and inflation rates. Zokrema, the population will drink 40% more in the Gotivka currency in 2026, lower in Berezna last year.

This trend was often reinforced by the current geopolitical situation at the Close Gathering. Currently, the situation on the Ukrainian currency market is gradually stabilizing.

The tight monetary policy of the National Bank, the preservation of the profitability of hryvnia instruments and the active presence of the NBU in the foreign exchange market are creating changes of mind to strengthen a stable and controlled situation.

What does this mean? The exact weakening of the hryvnia is the reflection of objective economic processes in the minds of war and global shocks. Suddenly, the foreign exchange market is losing control, and fundamental risks are being destroyed.

Today's hryvnia is a mirror of war and global instability.

Aside from your thoughts: the stabilization of the situation in the Close Convergence, the evidence of rhythmic external financing, the effective policy of the NBU, the preservation of macro-financial discipline Ukraine has been prepared for the future.