At the end of 2025, the metallurgical industry of Ukraine increased the production of commercial metal products by 4.8%, while at the same time, steel production decreased by 2.2%, to 7.41 million tons. Ukraine remains a serious global player in the field of metallurgy, but faces serious challenges, primarily the introduction of the European eco-duty SVAM and problems with electricity supply.
This is stated in the analytics on the GMC Center website.
Pig iron production in 2025 increased by 11.2%, to 7.88 million tons, and became one of the best indicators of the industry since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Such dynamics indicate structural changes in the work of metallurgy and its adaptation to current market conditions. The growth of blast furnace production is explained by increased external demand for raw materials, primarily in export markets.
Despite the positive dynamics, production volumes remain significantly lower than pre-war. For comparison, in 2021, Ukraine produced 21.16 million tons of iron and 21.37 million tons of steel, while in 2025 – 7.88 million tons and 7.41 million tons, respectively.. Rolled product output during this period decreased from 19.08 million tons to 6.52 million tons.
According to GMK Center estimates, the results of 2025 form a complex basis for 2026: steel output will remain at a neutral level, about 7.2 million tons, which actually means reaching the current “ceiling” of production in war conditions. Further growth will be constrained by weak global conditions, aggressive exports from China, high energy and logistics costs, and increasing trade restrictions.
At the same time, continued increased demand for pig iron may continue to support blast furnace production. In 2026, the potential increase in steel production in the EU and the European market’s refusal of Russian cast iron will create additional opportunities for Ukrainian exporters in this segment. This is precisely how analysts explain the imbalance in 2025, when the growth of iron smelting occurred against the backdrop of stagnation in steelmaking production.
The key risks for the industry in 2026 remain the introduction of the CBAM mechanism and new EU tariff quotas, as well as instability of energy supply due to regular missile and drone attacks. Over the past month, due to emergency power outages, the Zaporizhstal plant has suspended operations twice, and similar calls are being recorded at ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog. This increases operational risks and makes it difficult to plan the uninterrupted operation of metallurgical enterprises in 2026.
As you know, over 5 years, the largest metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine paid taxes and fees in the amount of UAH 190 billion, or $6.2 billion. At the end of 2024, the payment of taxes and fees by four metallurgical companies amounted to 1.6% of revenues to budgets of all levels. But if the tariffs of state monopolies and the freight tariff of Ukrzaliznytsia increase, the budget risks losing a source of profit, because manufacturers will begin to close enterprises.