Ukrainian industrial enterprises in 2025 will operate in conditions of rising tariffs for electricity and natural gas. The decision of NEURC on the increase has already been made, and the greatest burden will be felt by energy-intensive industries, in particular the metallurgy and mining sector.. Because of this, a further decline in production volumes is expected, and then a decrease in revenues to budgets of all levels.
In early December, NEURC decided to increase tariffs for electricity transmission and dispatching for 2025. Subsequently, the regulator approved an increase in tariffs for the distribution of natural gas for gas distribution network operators. An additional risk factor for the industry is also the initiative of Ukrzaliznytsia to increase freight tariffs by 37%.
The consequences of these decisions will primarily affect industrial consumers: as stated by ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog CEO Mauro Longobardo, the regulatory environment is not conducive to the development of the industry. According to him, natural monopolies shift their losses onto business due to increased tariffs, while metallurgical companies cannot compensate for these costs due to global steel pricing. He also reported that the company's total net losses in 2022-2024 reached almost $2.1 billion, largely due to rising electricity tariffs.
Director of the GMK Center Stanislav Zinchenko, in turn, emphasized: the issue of energy supply is critical for the mining industry, where energy costs can account for up to 60% of the cost of iron ore concentrate.
Thus, in 2025, the Krivoy Rog iron ore plant operated at a load of 10–20% of pre-war volumes. And in 2024, the Inguletsk GOK was stopped - the enterprise could not ensure competitive production costs due to the high cost of electricity, its delivery, as well as railway and port tariffs.
According to Zinchenko’s forecasts, iron ore exports could decline by 8–10% in 2025, and by another 5% in 2026.. Steel production in 2025 could decline by 4–5%, while 2026 is expected to remain at current levels at best..
As you know, over 5 years, the largest metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine paid taxes and fees in the amount of UAH 190 billion, or $6.2 billion. At the end of 2024, the payment of taxes and fees by four metallurgical companies amounted to 1.6% of revenues to budgets of all levels. But if the tariffs of state monopolies and the freight tariff of Ukrzaliznytsia increase, the budget risks losing a source of profit, because manufacturers will begin to close enterprises.