The National Bank believes that the key risk for the Ukrainian economy in 2025 is that a full-scale war will continue. The speed of updating the economy will mainly depend on the " This is stated in the new forecast of the National Bank.

" Russian aggression determines the risks of further decrease in economic potential, in particular due to losses of people, territories and industries, ”the NBU noted.

Also among risks for the economy:.

the emergence of additional budgetary needs, primarily to maintain defense capability;

additional tax increases are possible, which, depending on the parameters, may increase price pressure;

further damage to infrastructure, especially energy;

deepening of negative migration trends and further expansion of labor deficiency;

a decrease in the rhythm of international assistance and less favorable than currently expected foreign economic trends, in particular due to greater geopolitical polarization of countries and the corresponding fragmentation of world trade.

However, positive scenarios may also be implemented, primarily associated with strengthening the financial support of partners (the use of immobilized Russian assets for the needs of Ukraine) and efforts to provide a long world.

In addition, it is possible to further accelerate European integration processes and restore infrastructure, including energy.

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It was reported that the National Bank believes that international support this year will be sufficient for emission-free financing of the budget deficit and maintaining a stable situation in the foreign exchange market.