At risk: which products rise most of all and how much

24 January 2025, 23:54 | Economy
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The expectations that the next wave of rise in price will begin closer to spring were not justified. As soon as the holidays ended, they - prices - crept up again.

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Only up.

The question of what will be the next rise in price is of interest to the usual Ukrainian least of all. Everyone has long realized that prices will only rise. Forecasts vary. From 10-15% to 50% and above.

By the way: in December 2024, inflation accelerated to 12% in the annual dimension. The National Bank admitted that for some reason actual inflation does not listen to the regulator’s opinion. Everything was written off on a bad harvest and an increase in energy conservation costs.

Thus, a decrease in the sunflower harvest to 10 million tons and a price of 27 thousand. UAH per ton of seeds as raw materials for oil did their black business: individual processors reoriented for soybean processing, others stated that “squeezing oil from seeds” became a loss -making occupation in December. It is clear that sunflower oil on the shelf also reacted, although we all remember that the price of vegetable oil forms the global market. We remember that the price of vegetable oil in the first half of the year may unpleasantly surprise.

The rise in prices for raw milk against the backdrop of its shortage (remember that there are just over a million cows left, and milk yields are very different from those in the Netherlands), high prices for butter on the world market have provided producers in Ukraine with large earnings.

It’s hard to find a pack of butter on a supermarket shelf for less than 100 UAH. The prices for creamy in the first half of the year will resist high, further prices will determine global trends.

Now about sacred products. The first one is bread.. First of all, fresh pastries will grow in the price. There is such bread - lavash. If you decompose into the ingredients, then literally flour - salt - water. So, Lavash, which in one of the capital's supermarkets in October cost 24 UAH, as of mid -January - is already almost 30 UAH. Weight - 300 grams. And the question is not only about flour, which is rising in price due to a decrease in wheat harvest. The question is the demand for the product. Lavash scatters instantly.

In general, bread is becoming more expensive, as before, slowly but stubbornly.

It seems it’s time to add ordinary chicken eggs, which are the basis of a traditional breakfast and an ingredient for many dishes, to the list of special food products.

After an autumn take -off to 8 UAH per egg and attempts to explain this by a seasonal reduction in the offer, because home chickens are poorly rushing in winter, in January the market has denied all these attempts to hide dynamic export and the desire of manufacturers to earn money.

Eggs are rapidly becoming cheaper, and this is unlikely to have been helped by the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, which has launched a new investigation.. The lack of active purchases and the limited shelf life of eggs forced supermarkets to reconsider their pricing policy: the price dropped by half.

Advice just in case: if you see low prices for eggs, check their expiration date. Each package states: store at a temperature from 0 to 20 degrees for no more than 25 days.

By the way, Ukraine actively sold eggs for export last year and earned a total of more than 100 million foreign currency.

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Buckwheat also gets more expensive, but to the mark of 75 UAH/kg, as in December 2022, still very, very far.

Note. Typically, prices for a particular product are trying to repeat the previous record or surpass it. In the list of record holders - salt, buckwheat, onions, potatoes.

Intangible cultural heritage.

Among the traditional set of vegetables for borscht, carrots are the most noticeably increasing in price. Only in January this orange vegetable gained several hryvnias per kilogram. On average, carrots can be purchased in capital supermarkets for 40 UAH/kg.

Potatoes available from 27 to 60+ UAH/kg. These are shops. The bazaar maintains the level of 30–45 UAH/kg from October-November. The paradox is that this winter the bazaar is stable than the store. Yes, the potato harvest was smaller, but it was enough to satisfy the needs of all segments of consumers.

Agricultural officials say there is no reason to reduce prices. Current prices are a guideline with a certain potential rise in price closer to 15 percent, because overhead storage costs will be added.

Cabbage - already almost 40 UAH/kg. There is a young one - 60 each. In appearance, however, flimsy and unhappy, but one way or another the young of the greenhouses slightly slowed down the rise in price of the white.

Beets - in the region of 20 UAH/kg, onions - 14-15.

Typically, borscht begins to rise in price closer to spring, when supply decreases and product quality gradually deteriorates.. But not this season. Autumn shock, when the segment of the borscht set and all the unziple quiet word remembered the heat that negatively influenced the volumes of the production of vegetables, smoothly grew into winter rise in price.

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Ukrainian is ready to pay 60 UAH for vegetables. Remember the onion epic when the price reached almost a hundred per kilo. Pay, but for a quality product. Which is not enough.

At the same time, some producers claim that they keep quality products until the end of the season.. Judging by what lies in boxes in stores, a very dubious statement. Moreover, often it is the low quality of the product and unattractive appearance that is the last straw for making a decision - not to buy.

Now we can confidently predict three things.

First: Increasing demand for cereals and pasta. Second: the number of people who want to grow vegetables will grow within the framework of the personal peasant farm. In the spring, even those who do not like the garden will come to the gardens. Because it is better to have your own than looking for three potatoes in a bunch of unsightly tubers. Third: Retail will begin to develop vegetable stores, because power promises assistance and support.

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Uncontrolled growth.

Have you noticed: in the fall of 2024, the authorities withdrew and stopped paying attention to the rise in food prices altogether? Moreover, it became the main promoter of prices, calmly stating the record price tags here and there and forecasting further growth and calling it the causes.

But in the conditions of Ukraine, there is one convincing reason-almost no one controls the price of the price. Volnitsa.

In particular, the loaf loaf, which in December 2021 could be bought for 18 UAH, during 2022 it went up by 3.7 UAH, and in January 2025 there are already more than 30 UAH.

Milk is pasteurized with fat content to 2.6% over the past year has grown in price by almost 8 UAH/liter. The situation is similar for most food products.. About high prices for coffee and chocolate, you should not even remember.

If you do nothing, then the prices will jump as they want. It was then - in March 2022 - that the Ministry of Economy returned certain elements of state price regulation, but literally a few months later the situation began to change. Consumer prices are growing again faster than the NBU calculated.

Everyone is calm at the Ministry of Economy. They say that they constantly monitor price dynamics - both in general and for individual product categories. The Ministry of Economy supports market regulation and deregulation of pricing and does not see the need to introduce additional price regulation.

Although the higher the price, the more profitable the official Kyiv. The answer is hidden in three letters - VAT. In every kilogram of potatoes, sausages, fat, bread, value added tax is hidden, and therefore, filling the treasury.

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At risk.

Firstly, if a part of consumers pay attention to the rise in price of coffee or chocolate, then changing the price of bread, potatoes or eggs is sensitive to many. Therefore, vegetables, fruits, sugar, oil, flour are at risk. Why? Because that's what you need every day.

Secondly, the so-called budget segment of consumers within the country is growing because the number of middle peasants is reduced. Purchasing power is still declining: the survey shows that 44% of citizens are forced to save on food.

Therefore, in the end, the growth of demand is in the segment of the simplest products.

The consumer always has a choice: to buy or not to buy. But life turns in such a way that there is no choice - you need to buy, because it is unrealistic to independently grow everything that is necessary to ensure life..

For some reason, Ukraine, ready to feed the world, constantly forgets about its citizens. But food security is not just about growing enough. This also ensures food availability.

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