In December last year, the board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to increase the discount rate to 13.5% per annum. This decision was aimed at maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market, keeping inflation expectations under control and gradually slowing inflation to the target of 5%, the NBU reported.

Over the past year, interest rates on household deposits have been decreasing. " During the year, the yield on hryvnia deposits for individuals decreased by an average of 4 p.p.. Moreover, this happened almost simultaneously, regardless of the timing of deposits.. However, the largest reduction in rates occurred precisely in the segment of ultra-short deposits - almost 5-6 p.p.. In 2025, in a global sense, the “dependence” of rates on the discount rate and the rate on 3-month certificates will remain,” Dmitry Zamotaev, director of the retail business department at Globus Bank, told Focus..

According to the NBU, the Ukrainian index of rates on individual deposits (UIRD) for the period from January 5, 2024 to January 6, 2025 changed as follows:.

In 2025, experts expect deposit rates to depend on the NBU discount rate and the rate on 3-month certificates of deposit. “Now, after the December correction of these two indicators, there will be no significant changes in the “basic” profitability, unless citizens decide to take advantage of numerous bonus programs and promotions that allow them to make deposits with an additional percentage of profitability (on average it will be 1-1.5 p.p.). There are already forecasts that in January the regulator may adjust the discount rate (corresponding changes may also occur in the rate for 3-month dept certificates). And the level of correction will directly determine the plans of banks for the development of deposits and at what profitability,” says Dmitry Zamotaev. In his opinion, in the first quarter of 2025, average rates on hryvnia deposits will be as follows:.

According to the expert, in the first quarter of 2025, the main reason for clients choosing ultra-short deposits will be an attempt to reduce losses from inflation, as well as to quickly gain the opportunity to freely manage their own funds in conditions of winter economic and military uncertainty. After all, the short term of the deposit allows you not to worry about the issue of early termination of the agreement if a vital need for free funds suddenly arises.

As for rates, since a decrease in inflation is predicted, the National Bank is likely to reduce the discount rate. This will affect banks, which will reduce interest on time deposits for citizens.

“We understand that in modern conditions inflation is not static. At least in the second half of 2025, it is expected to decrease to 7%, which will automatically affect the “weight” of interest received on deposits. According to our calculations, by making a deposit for 1 year or more at the beginning of 2025, a citizen will be able to receive 3-4% of net profit, because the maximum rates on long-term deposits, taking into account promotional offers, reach 16% per annum,” says Dmitry Zamotaev.

In his opinion, banks will attract new customers not only through more favorable rates, but also thanks to additional advantages, for example, loyal conditions for early termination, increased interest on the card balance, or additional bonus interest for placing large amounts, etc.. " But the most important factor that will influence citizens’ decision to place funds is an attempt to protect savings from inflation,” summed up Dmitry Zamotaev.

Focus previously wrote that Ukrainians keep about 63% of their savings on current accounts and cards.

Let us remind you that an increase in military duty from 1.5% to 5% will lead to an increase in the total tax burden on income from Ukrainians’ deposits in banks to 23%.