In 2023, the Russian economy will grow instead of falling, which was predicted due to the imposition of sanctions. In particular, the aggressor country has already managed to restore export-import figures to pre-war levels, writes The New York Times.
The International Monetary Fund said Monday it now expects the Russian economy to grow 0.3 percent this year, a sharp improvement from its preliminary estimate of a 2.3 percent contraction..
The IMF also said it expects Russian crude oil exports to remain relatively high at the current price cap and Russian trade to continue to be diverted to countries that have not imposed sanctions..
However, even though Russia has stopped publishing trade data, trade figures from some of Russia’s neighbors and allies suggest that countries such as Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are stepping in to ensure.
So, for example, a " Phone shipments to this tiny former Soviet republic have begun to grow more than 10-fold. At the same time, Armenia recorded an explosion in its export of smartphones to its sanctioned ally, Russia..
The same trend was observed in the other listed countries, and concerned a wide range of products - from washing machines to computer chips..
" Analysts have calculated that Russian imports may have already resumed to pre-war levels, or will soon do so..
Moreover, the Washington-based non-profit organization Silverado Policy Accelerator recently published a similar analysis, estimating that the value of Russian imports had already exceeded pre-war levels by September..
But such successes of the Russian economy, according to The New York Times, are connected not only with the fact that a number of Russia's allies are helping it to circumvent sanctions..
" ) difficult to get out of Russia. Recent studies have shown that less than 9% of companies based in the European Union and the G7 (G7, - ed.. ), abandoned their Russian subsidiaries, ”says the publication.
Russia also managed to circumvent sanctions restrictions on the transportation of oil by oil products by sea.
Maritime tracking companies are seeing a surge in shipping fleets that could help Russia export its energy, apparently bypassing Western restrictions on those sales..
According to the interviewed experts, such countries as the United Arab Emirates, India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia can help Russia in this.. And circumvention of sanctions takes place on an industrial scale.
" These include limiting the price Russia can charge for its oil, as well as limited access to semiconductors and other critical technologies.. But the Russian economy has proven remarkably resilient, raising questions about the effectiveness of Western sanctions..
The publication admits that the sanctions still affected the standard of living in Russia, but only at the level of ordinary Russians..
" Reports regularly flow from Russia that consumers are disappointed with expensive or low-quality goods..
Certain sectors of the Russian economy are also in crisis..
For example, these are automobile factories that were closed due to the fact that they could not receive spare parts from Germany, France, Japan and South Korea..
But the Russian state turned out to be less vulnerable. For example, the Russian central bank managed to maintain the value of the ruble and maintain the stability of financial markets.
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Recall, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, claims that the tenth package of sanctions against Russia will close all loopholes that have existed so far..