The “marginal price sanction” on Russian Urals oil is a fairly effective mechanism for influencing the aggressor due to minimizing his income. Now it is extremely important to clearly work out the mechanisms for the effective operation of this sanction within a few months, not forgetting to impose sanctions on those companies that dare to bypass the "

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The negative expectations of some analysts that the Russian Federation will successfully bypass the " The vast majority of EU countries and the G7 countries have completely abandoned Russian oil since December 6, 2022, while countries that have not officially acceded to the sanctions, such as China and India, still demanded big discounts and now also buy Urals oil cheaper than the "

At the same time, the Kremlin's threats that Russia would not sell oil to those who want to buy it at a limited price did not come true.. For example, tankers that were moving with Russian oil to India last week meet the conditions of the "

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According to Oleg Getman, the imposed sanctions have already led to a significant drop in prices for Russian Urals oil.. Thus, according to the Russian Ministry of Finance, from November 15 to December 14, the price of oil averaged 57. $5. /barrel. While the average price of the world brand of Brent oil for this period was $84. /barrel.

The price of Russian oil kept within $70. /bbl. until mid-November, and then decreased during the month, and now averages $52-54. /bbl.

With such prices for Urals, the national budget of the Russian Federation will receive an additional 2 trillion rubles less, which, together with the planned budget deficit of 3 trillion rubles in the Russian Federation, will already reach a deficit of more than 5 trillion rubles.

It is impossible not to notice, Oleg Getman notes, that the fall in oil prices has already begun to affect the ruble exchange rate - over the past week, the Russian ruble has devalued from the mark of 60 rubles per dollar, which it kept in November and early December - to 72 rubles per dollar on this.

But that's not all. In addition to the fall in the price of Russian oil, there is a decrease in production and exports of the energy carrier. Russia exported a total of 14.5 million tons of oil (106 million barrels) in October, according to Bruegel.. The average price was $73 per barrel. Then the average price of Brent oil on international exchanges reached $94 per barrel..

Already in November, the Russian Federation exported a total of 12 million tons of oil (87 million barrels). The average price was $66 per barrel. The average price of Brent oil on international exchanges was $91 per barrel.

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So, Russia's expectations that in November and December Russian oil companies will quickly reorient themselves from the EU countries to other countries, in particular, Asian countries, did not come true, there is a significant drop in oil exports..

“At the moment, it is obvious that Russia is losing the oil and gas war,” the expert concludes, “the “sanction at the maximum price” has been systematically prepared, at the moment there are still no signs that someone is trying to circumvent it. In a situation where the price of Brent brand fluctuates within $ 80. / barrel - it is more profitable to sell the Urals brand up to $60 without evading the sanction and without being exposed to the risks of secondary sanctions"

Earlier it was reported that the last week on the oil market was marked by an absolute peak of Russian oil.. Oil exports from Russian ports fell by 54%.