According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the long term, the net fiscal effect for Europe from the influx of refugees from Ukraine will be positive. Ukrainians are actively looking for work and integrating into the European labor market. This is discussed in the study of the National Bank of Ukraine.

Geographical and cultural proximity of Ukraine to Europe, the presence of a diaspora, as well as the status of temporary protection will contribute to an increase in the participation of forced migrants in the labor force.

The European Central Bank expects that the labor force participation rate of Ukrainian migrants of working age in the eurozone countries will be from 25% to 55% in the medium term. At the same time, the EU workforce will grow by 0.2-0.8%, or 0.3-1.3 million. human.

While migrants pose additional challenges to public finances in the short term if they remain in host countries for more than a few years and become active labor market participants, for these countries the impact on budget and economic growth is likely to be positive.

Lack of investment in the human capital of migrants by host countries in the early stages can lead to high costs in the long run.

According to OECD calculations, the labor force in all EU countries will grow by 0.5% by the end of 2022, which is twice as much as for the previous wave of migrants in 2014-2017. The greatest impact is expected in the Czech Republic (2.2%), Poland (2.1%), Estonia (1.9%) and in several other countries (Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania) - from 1% to 1,.

For its part, employment growth in the EU as a whole could be 0.4%. If the average migrant in 2014-2017 was a young man with a basic education, in 2022 it is a woman with a higher education, often with children.

However, despite the rather optimistic estimates for the host countries of Ukrainians, the data indicate a moderate integration of forced migrants into their labor markets.. Yes, although 63% of the migrants surveyed worked in Ukraine prior to the full-scale invasion, only 28% were employed in September.

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Recall that in 2022, the expenses of Ukrainians abroad tripled compared to the previous year and today amount to $2 billion per month.. This was announced by the head of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshny.