Finally, the Russian economy began to stagger. No, the collapse is still very far away, but at least it becomes obvious that the consequences of the sanctions pressure this time can really harm Russia. Recall that the previous economic results of the Russian Federation were surprisingly good, and even despite the fall in oil and gas exports, the growth of global oil and gas prices made it possible to fulfill and overfulfill the federal budget. Then we predicted that it would still be in short supply no earlier than November-December. Well it's happened before. Soon Russia will fully feel how much this war is costing her..

Budget indicators.

For the first time since the beginning of the war, the budget of the Russian Federation (July) was reduced to a deficit. And not just some millions, but immediately almost 900 billion rubles. Already in the fall, Russians will have to get into the notches of the National Welfare Fund in order to finance all expenditure items.. First of all, the military.

Yes, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation closed the data on expenditure items so that, God forbid, we would not find out that a terrorist country spends everything it has on the war. But in fact, even general knowledge of arithmetic is enough to understand that since March, Russian spending has grown by 650 billion rubles.. , of which about 500 billion are military spending, and 150 billion are the rest. Only this is very secret information, do not tell anyone.

That is, since the beginning of the war, budget expenditures have grown by 35% and will continue to increase in the future.. Trend - approximately plus 150 billion rubles. monthly. This means that already in October, unplanned expenses will exceed a trillion rubles, and by December they will amount to almost 1.5 trillion. There is a lot, and it’s time to tighten our belts, but, on the one hand, the Russian Ministry of Finance continues to make a poker face, not recognizing any problems at all, on the other hand, fund managers use it without hesitation. For example, various Russian departments have already submitted applications to their Ministry of Finance for additional spending of at least 5 trillion rubles.. Indeed, why not.

It is clear that such expenses require a considerable increase in revenues, primarily oil and gas. At the same time, oil and gas profits comparable to spring figures more than halved to RUB 115 billion.

For clarity, it was not so much the sanctions that had the greatest weight here, but the self-restraints of the Russian Federation. By resorting to EU gas blackmail, Russia cuts its own profits. That is, by stopping blackmail and increasing the volume of pumping through the Nord Stream, it will be able to increase profits. Another way is to devalue the ruble, which is now strong, which significantly reduces the profits of exporters. But the end of the EU gas blackmail is at odds with the external political course of the Kremlin, and the devaluation of the national currency is at odds with the internal one.. These are unlikely scenarios.. And although the Russian Ministry of Finance hopes that oil and gas revenues will grow to 360 billion rubles in August. , it definitely does not depend on one desire of the Ministry of Finance. And the amount is not very large, given that back in April, the country's oil and gas profits amounted to 1.8 trillion rubles..

Supply and demand.

Of course, there is another revenue part of the budget - not fuel. But there is also a worrying trend.. Indeed, all these departures of " But the impact is already evident.

Import tax revenues to the Russian state budget are declining more and more each time, from minus 38% in April to minus 44% in July. That is, problems with imports in the country are not being solved and are growing.. Recall that in March, most Russian companies said that the sanctions are nonsense, their existing reserves will last at least 6-9 months, and by that time there will be ways to solve these problems. As you can see, there were not so many stocks, and ways to solve problems with subsequent deliveries are not as easy as it seemed..

In general, in the non-fuel part of Russia's income, there is a 30% decline, of which minus 40% for VAT, more than 30% for income tax, minus 44.5% for excise taxes and minus 60% for duties on imported goods.

It is noteworthy that inflation in the Russian Federation is now about 15%, that is, the same VAT should not have failed so much if supply and demand had been preserved.. Well, the Russian State Statistics Service claims that demand did not fall much, which means that the influence is still on the supply side, and the Russian Federation still felt what the loss of global retailers is worth.

Here, by the way, is another trap: in general, inflation could help with the receipt of indirect taxes on consumption, but this is Russia, they don’t do that here. If we are talking about inflation, then it should only decrease. Well, they rolled up their sleeves: state regulation of prices and tariffs, restrictions on price premiums, export restrictions, legalization of parallel imports, etc.. Everything to tame prices and reach the 14% level before the end of the year. Not very smart, but very Russian.

Obviously there won't be 14%, even if the government sets prices for all goods on its own.. In June, for example, prices for such basic goods as milk, bread, pasta and cereals were already 20-40% higher.. And if you can understand why foreign cars have risen in price in the Russian Federation, then why bread has become more expensive in a country that is among the world leaders in growing wheat, it is difficult. It will continue to be difficult, because if the state regulates pricing instead of the market, the market loses ground under its feet, it does not feel the real reactions of consumers, does not understand signals from competitors, cannot respond to changes, does not have a plan for the future, because it is not the future.

Now there is a moratorium on bankruptcy in the Russian Federation, which is convenient, of course, but there are indicators on which a moratorium cannot be imposed. Thus, Russian companies in July recorded the largest decline in production since April. In general, by 6%, but, for example, the production of durable goods decreased by all 58%. Due to the lack of raw materials and reduced demand, companies are not only curtailing production, they are stopping investments and hiring new employees..

From March to June, spitting on bankruptcy, 113.5 thousand. companies, growth compared to the previous year - 17.5%. At the same time, the pace of opening new businesses is stable - about 78.5 thousand. That is, those who leave are about one and a half times more than those who enter the market.. When the moratorium on bankruptcy ends, local experts are convinced that at least a quarter of small and medium-sized businesses will leave the market at the same time, only those with stable demand, who work in narrow niches or are not tied to imported raw materials will remain..

What's next?

The transition from a budget surplus to a deficit is a significant factor, because it was the oil and gas surplus that for a long time served as the base that allowed the Russian Federation to develop, despite all the problems of the domestic market. Russian scientists are already seriously considering the crisis scenario, and, in their opinion, the probability of its implementation is 25%. Its prerequisites: active reduction in the consumption of Russian hydrocarbons and a consistent decline in oil prices by 25-35%. All but subdued global economic growth, no other factors. It's good to have such a simple economic model. But even in the baseline scenario, the probability of which is 75%, respectively, the prerequisites are the same, just more modest: a moderate rejection of hydrocarbons and a decrease in oil prices by 17-21%.

Yes, and the consequences are common, just of different depth: the narrowing of the domestic market, the primitivization of the economy, the crisis in the labor market. Basically, degradation. Since, as it turned out, the domestic market of the Russian Federation without petrodollars and imports is not able to develop.

A significant burdening factor is Russian policy, which is the last thing that looks at the economic condition of the country..

This means that we understand that the further rate of the half-life of the Russian economy depends on the persistent struggle for the world to refuse to buy Russian energy carriers and impose additional duties on oil supplies from the Russian Federation.. And then they will finish themselves off.

[votes id\u003d"

Read more articles by Yulia Samaeva at the link.