Against the backdrop of the war, business expects inflation to increase and the national currency to weaken. This is discussed in the business expectations of Ukrainian enterprises published by the National Bank for the second quarter of 2022..

The survey was conducted during May 2022. Total surveyed: 592 enterprises in 21 regions of Ukraine (with the exception of the occupied territories and those where active hostilities are taking place). At the same time, the National Bank emphasizes that due to the war, the results may be unrepresentative..

It is emphasized that the published results reflect only the opinions of respondents - heads of Ukrainian enterprises in the II quarter of 2022. These expectations are not forecasts and estimates of the National Bank.

According to the data received, in the next 12 months, Ukrainian business expects:.

intensification of inflationary processes – growth of consumer prices by 21. 7% (in the previous quarter - 9. 5%); depreciation of the national currency - the average value of the exchange rate - 36. 06 UAH/USD. USA (in Q1 2022 - 29. 35 UAH/USD. USA).

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Percentage of respondents who predict that consumer price growth in the next 12 months will exceed the previous 20. 0% and in the second quarter amounted to 58. 2%.

Military actions are the main factor influencing the rise in prices. 93.2% think so.

Production costs and the exchange rate will also have a significant impact on consumer price growth (58. 8% and 58. 6% of respondents respectively).

The social expenditures of the budget will have the least effect on price increases (only 4. 9%).

Expectations are also based on the forecast of a decline in the level of business activity: the index of business expectations (BPI) - 72. 6% (in the previous quarter - 108. 2%). The decrease in IDI occurred in all components of the index. Most significantly for the performance of construction work, for machinery, equipment and inventory.

A decrease in the production of goods and services is also expected: the balance of answers is " 7% (in Q1 2022 - 1. 7%).

The expectations of enterprises regarding the need for borrowed funds in the near future have become tougher. At the same time, estimates of the rigidity of the conditions for access to bank loans increased significantly..

The share of respondents planning to take bank loans has decreased.

The dominant factor hindering the development of enterprises is called military operations and their consequences..

At the same time, most other factors have eased, most notably excessive tax pressure, high energy prices, and a shortage of skilled workers..

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Recall that according to experts, the dollar will rise in price. The main reason is the issue of the hryvnia. That is, the NBU has already “printed” a lot of hryvnias, but, unfortunately, this remains the main source of financing the budget deficit, which has grown critically due to the war. And the issue of the hryvnia automatically reduces the value of the hryvnia against foreign currencies.

The Office of the President has already started talking about the need to revise the official exchange rate.

" What's the point of holding two courses at once? That is, we are now in a situation where the National Bank seems to fix the rate at 29.25, and on the other hand, there is a rate that we see in the real market, which is at least 33 to 36 hryvnia per dollar,"

According to unofficial information, an increase in the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar to UAH 36/USD is being discussed..