The refinancing rate raised by the NBU to 27% may lead to the bankruptcy of 20 banks. This is stated in the statement of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.

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The association notes that more than 50% of borrowers will stop servicing loans. Already, many clients are turning to banks with a request to restructure their current credit debt, which means an automatic deterioration in the structure of banks' assets.

In addition, banks will be hit hard by negative interest margins as consumer and business loans contain a fixed interest rate that must remain unchanged.. Already now there are cases when large retail chains are already taking loans at 30% for prepayment.

“Given the prospect of a sharp rise in the cost of resources, which will be an inevitable consequence of raising the NBU loan rate to 27%, it should be noted that an increase in interest rates on loans will lead to a sharp deterioration in the structure of loan portfolios, a violation of reserve requirements and a significant decrease in the liquidity of the banking system,” they note..

Also, the rise in the cost of monetary resources for the real sector of the economy and banks will lead to a halt in lending necessary for the resumption of production, to a decrease in its volume, will lead to a reduction in jobs, which in turn will have a negative impact both on the economy as a whole and on the social.

AUB points out that this could lead to a banking crisis, which was avoided even in the first months of the war..

" For most banks, significant losses will be recorded when recalculating the cost of refinancing loans, since banks do not have the opportunity to increase rates on previously granted loans and purchased government bonds. As a result, this will create an additional burden on the capitals of banks.. The Deposit Guarantee Fund will come under significant pressure,"

In this regard, the members of the association call on the National Bank to take into account the complexity of the situation and return the rates on long-term refinancing loans to the level as of June 1.

They also propose to allow early repayment of a refinancing loan by banks - at the expense of collateral through the voluntary transfer of mortgaged government bonds and government bonds " In addition, AUB proposes to adapt the standards for Ukrainian banks in connection with the introduction of martial law and a sharp increase in the NBU discount rate.

Recall that on June 2, the National Bank raised the discount rate from 10% immediately to 25%.

At the same time, the rate for refinancing loans was set at 27%, and for certificates of deposit - 23%.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian attack, the economy and financial system have been transferred from market principles of management to management in a " This approach has worked. It helped contain panic and stabilize the financial and economic system.. However, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the negative and destabilizing effects of the " Read more in the article of the head of the NBU Kirill Shevchenko for ZN. UA "