Russia has a catastrophic budget deficit

18 May 2022, 12:39 | Economy
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Although the EU countries have not yet been able to agree on an embargo on Russian oil, Russia's budget, which is suffering from Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine, has already formed a multibillion-dollar " The Moscow Times writes about it.

“Although the treasury continues to receive an influx of raw materials taxes in the amount of more than a trillion rubles a month, and the EU oil embargo remains an unrealized plan, a sharp increase in military spending and a falling economy are already forcing the budget to burst at the seams,” the newspaper writes..

In April, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation recorded the first deficit this year: budget revenues were less than expenditures by 262.3 billion rubles.

At the same time, experts call the figure even more. So, Sovcombank analyst Mikhail Vasilyev claims that in April the treasury's revenues were less than expenditures by 350 billion rubles..

But even if we believe the figures of the Russian government, then, according to the forecasts of the Russian Minister of Finance, by the end of the year, expenses will exceed revenues by 1.6 trillion rubles..

However, even here experts have a different opinion.. As Farida Iskhakova, an analyst at Otkritie Research, points out, taking into account anti-crisis spending, the treasury deficit may reach 2.7 trillion rubles by the end of the year..

Moreover, anti-crisis spending can, in fact, reach 4 trillion rubles.. In particular, the government of the Russian Federation will have to index pensions and salaries of state employees against the backdrop of record inflation for 20 years. In addition, up to 2 trillion rubles, according to experts, will have to be poured into state-owned banks, which, according to forecasts, face losses of 5.8 trillion rubles..

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Thus, consisting of 38% of oil and gas revenues, the Russian budget already feels the " Although Russian oil exports even increased in April, they had to pay for this with unprecedented discounts exceeding $35 per barrel..

The strengthening of the ruble added fuel to the fire, which reached 2-year highs against the dollar and almost 5-year highs against the euro. In April, the budget did not receive 133 billion rubles compared to the plan, and since the beginning of the war - 435 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported in early May.

At the same time, the war with Ukraine, which has been going on for three months (The Moscow Times uses the term " This follows from the official data of the Ministry of Finance, published on Tuesday..

On average, the military machine "

"

Cumulatively, in January-April, the budget spent 1.

681 trillion rubles on military items - three times more than on education (517 billion rubles) and healthcare (615 billion rubles) and 10 times more than on environmental protection (167 billion).

At the end of the year, the "

"

In addition, part of the additional costs will be financed through the reallocation of funds within the budget lines..

In the old days, the Ministry of Finance could cover deficits with debt. But now it's getting expensive: to borrow for 10 years through federal bonds, you have to pay 10.2% per annum - almost twice as much as in 2020.




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