Ukraine has survived the main shock associated with entering the state of war, and by the end of the year, inflation in Ukraine may exceed 20%, while in April it was already 15.9%, and the situation is now under control. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the position of the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Kirill Shevchenko, which he outlined in a column for HB.

He also stressed that the current figures are incomparable with 2015..

" According to NBU estimates based on web-scraping (a method of collecting prices from online supermarkets), in April inflation was 15.9%, and by the end of the year it may exceed 20%. This is a significant level of price growth, but controlled. And such figures are incomparable with 2015, when inflation reached 60% in some months,"

The head of the National Bank stressed that the regulator has extensive experience in dealing with rising prices. In addition, there are no cases in history when a country entered a state of war with such a highly developed financial system and monetary policy..

Shevchenko announces a gradual recovery of the forecast cycle and the use of a discount rate to reduce inflation to the NBU's target of 5%.

" But as soon as the monetary transmission channels start working and uncertainty decreases, we will return to the inflation targeting (IT) regime, which at one time helped to overcome the very inflation of 60%,"

Recall that in 2021, consumer inflation was 10%.

In March 2022, year-on-year consumer inflation accelerated to 13.7% (from 10. 7% in February).

The fall in real Ukrainian GDP in March amounted to 45%, the state budget deficit in 2022 may reach 16-26% of GDP.