The war in Ukraine not only created a humanitarian crisis of enormous proportions, but also dealt a severe blow to the global economy.. The Secretariat of the World Trade Organization on April 11 analyzed the consequences of the war for global trade and development.

“The suffering and destruction is being felt by the people of Ukraine themselves, but the costs of reduced trade and production are likely to be felt by people around the world due to higher food and energy prices and reduced availability of goods exported by Russia and Ukraine,” it says..

Using a simulated global economic model, the WTO predicts that the crisis could reduce global GDP growth by 0.7-1.3 percent, leading to growth somewhere between 3.1% and 3.7% in 2022. The model also suggests that global trade growth this year could almost halve from 4.7 percent forecast last October to 2.4-3 percent..

Although the shares of Russia and Ukraine in the total volume of world trade and production are relatively small, the organization notes, they are important suppliers of basic products, in particular food and energy.. In 2019, both countries supplied about 25% of wheat, 15% of barley and 45% of sunflower exports.. Russia alone accounted for 9.4% of global fuel trade, including 20% \u200b\u200bof natural gas exports.

[see_also ids\u003d"

Europe, the main destination for both Russian and Ukrainian exports, is likely to be under the brunt of the economic impact. Reduced supplies of grains and other foodstuffs will also increase the prices of agricultural products, with negative consequences for food security in poor regions.

Africa and the Middle East are the most vulnerable regions as they import more than 50% of their grain needs from Ukraine and/or Russia. Some countries in sub-Saharan Africa are facing the possibility of rising wheat prices up to 50-85% as a result of the impact of the war on the supply of grain from the region.

“The current crisis is likely to exacerbate international food security at a time when food prices are already at historically high levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors,” warns the Secretariat.

[see_also ids\u003d"

One of the long-term risks is that the war could provoke the collapse of the world economy into separate blocks. Economic sanctions could cause large economies to move towards decoupling based on geopolitical considerations in order to achieve greater self-sufficiency in production and trade. Even if formal blocs do not emerge, private actors may decide to minimize risk by reorienting supply chains.

The Secretariat's note warns that the revenue loss from this development "