Information that has recently been circulating in the media and social networks about allegedly $ 1 billion. per day, which the countries of the world (according to another version - the EU countries) pay daily to Russia for oil and gas, is nowhere confirmed by detailed calculations.
At the same time, assessing the current real volumes and prices of oil and gas supplies, as well as their dynamics and forecasts, it can be argued that the countries of the European Union and the G7 have actually already begun to implement the most deadly sanctions for the Russian economy - the embargo on oil and gas.
Currently, the countries of the world pay the Russian Federation for oil and gas about 0.57-0.68 billion dollars.. per day. But these volumes are rapidly declining every day..
Detailed calculations are as follows:.
Oil :.
Data for 2021 (Central Bank of the Russian Federation):.
According to statistics from the Central Bank of Russia, oil sales in 2021 amounted to 231.6 million tons per year. The average price per year was $64. per barrel.
In total, the Russian Federation received from the sale of oil in 2021 - 111 billion dollars. USA.
2022:.
According to experts, weekly Russian oil exports fell by 26% at the end of March.. The average cost of Russian oil brand Urals during the last week fluctuated between 79-82 dollars. per barrel.
Therefore, even with the current level of sanctions and unfavorable conditions for oil trade in 2022, Russia will receive 100-105 billion dollars.. revenue (0.27-0.29 billion dollars. per day as of now).
In the future, given the already complete rejection of Russian oil by the United States, Great Britain, Australia, the cessation or reduction in the purchase of Russian oil by large companies (in particular Shell TotalEnergies SE), the blocking of most ports in the world for Russian cargo, oil sales will continue this year.
Gas :.
Data for 2021:.
According to statistics from the Central Bank of Russia, gas sales in 2021 amounted to 204.4 bcm.
The price of natural gas for the year was $281.8. per 1000 m3.
In total, the Russian Federation received from the sale of gas in 2021 - 55.5 billion. dol. USA.
2022:.
The EU adopted a plan to reduce Russian gas purchases by 2/3 by the end of 2022, but so far the reduction in volumes is insignificant.
At the same time, since the beginning of April, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have refused Russian gas. Therefore, it can be reasonably assumed that in the current year the volume of Russian exports will be at the level of 2021 - 204.4 billion m. cube.
The price of gas has been falling in the last month and currently the price for long-term contracts fluctuates at the level of October 2021 (600-700 USD. per 1000 m3).
Therefore, even with the current level of sanctions, in 2022 Russia will receive $122-143 billion in revenue ($0.3-0.39 billion).. per day, currently).
In January, Russia, according to the customs service of the Russian Federation, received $ 9.46 billion from gas exports. This confirms the above calculations..
Since the largest buyer, the EU, has already agreed on a plan to switch to other suppliers and energy sources, Russia's gas revenues from 2023 will decrease significantly. At the same time, in the coming years, Russia will not be able to replace these losses with other buyers due to logistics..
Eventually:.
Currently, the countries of the world pay about 0.57-0.68 billion dollars for oil and gas to Russia.. per day and volumes decrease daily.
In 2022, Russia will receive about 222-248 billion dollars. revenue (not profit), of which about half will go to the state budget of the Russian Federation.
However, already in 2023, thanks to the measures of the European Union on gas, the refusal of democratic countries from Russian oil and the blocking of ports for Russian cargo in all democratic countries, Russia will receive only 100-140 billion dollars.. per year, which will lead to catastrophic shortfalls in its state budget.