The war will affect not only the economies of the warring countries, but also the world as a whole - financial markets are falling, sanctions are intensifying, commodity prices are rising, in contrast to economic growth forecasts. Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens to cause serious damage to many countries and entire industries.

Economic consequences of the attack on Ukraine for the aggressor country.

According to the World Bank, the Russian economy, with a capital of $1.5 trillion. is the 11th largest in the world. Two weeks ago, it was an active energy trader, exporting millions of barrels of crude oil a day with the help of major oil companies.. Today, a flurry of sanctions hit the Russian economy. The Russian stock market has almost halved, and the Russian ruble has fallen to a record low against the dollar. Russian stocks were excluded from world indices, and trading by some Russian companies was stopped in New York and London.

It's getting harder for Moscow to sell oil and gas supplies to foreign buyers who fear the consequences of financial sanctions. Many of the world's largest oil companies are leaving the country or suspending new investment in exploration and development projects. Exxon Mobil, the largest US oil and gas company, has begun recalling American specialists working in Russia and announced that it is withdrawing from its latest project in the country, Sakhalin-1, which was declared " US subsidiary Exxon was the operator of the project, and the company's decision to leave marked the end of its more than 25-year presence in Russia.. French company Total Energies suspends new investment.

Tech giants, automakers, retailers and airlines have suspended their activities in Russia. Visa and Mastercard no longer work in Russia. Boeing and Airbus will not serve the Russian fleet. And that's not all the restrictions..

Growing prices for cereals and not only….

Everyone knows Ukraine as the breadbasket of Europe. It is the fifth largest exporter of wheat in the world.. The volumes of grain expert from Ukraine increased every year, as evidenced by impressive figures. According to the results of nine months of 2021, Ukraine exported 13.1 million tons of wheat for $3.15 billion. It was a new all-time high.

It is also known that Ukraine and Russia together account for almost 30% of world wheat exports.. This flow of grain from the two countries accounts for more than 70% of total wheat imports to the fragile economies of the Middle East, Egypt, Turkey and Lebanon.. Yemen, for example, imports 22% of its wheat consumption from Ukraine, Libya - about 43%.

This will put additional pressure on Turkey, which is already in the midst of an economic crisis and is struggling with inflation approaching 50%, with soaring food, fuel and electricity prices..

Ukraine sends more than 40% of its wheat and corn exports to Africa, where there are fears that further food shortages and rising prices could even provoke famine.. According to UN estimates, between 2018 and 2020, 32% of wheat imports to Africa came from Russia and another 12% from Ukraine.. And in Somalia and Benin, all imported wheat in the specified period came from the countries at war now.

Up to 90% of Lebanese wheat and vegetable oil imports, as well as most grain imports, come from Ukraine and Russia. Fighting in Ukraine has engulfed the country's southern ports, halting shipments, and imports from Russia are hampered by financial sanctions imposed on Moscow. As a result, Lebanon has only a month's worth of wheat left, exacerbating an already existing food crisis there.. In addition, due to the sharp rise in world oil prices, official fuel prices in this country rose less than two weeks ago by a shocking 33% after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.. The ongoing hostilities have exacerbated the economic crisis in Lebanon, which has pushed more than three-quarters of the country's population into poverty.

Egypt's largest importer still has reserves, but they are already looking for an alternative in other countries.

War in Ukraine pushes Syria to ration wheat. And the World Food Program (WFP) called the current situation a “countdown to disaster” for Yemen, which is largely dependent on imports.. Importing wheat and other grains from the Americas is time consuming and extremely expensive due to high transport costs.

The Black Sea serves as the main conduit for international grain supplies from Ukraine, which is also one of the leading exporters of barley, corn and rapeseed.. From 2018 to October 1, 2021, Ukraine exported more than 180 million tons of corn, wheat and barley.

Prices for wheat and other grains have almost doubled since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, with fertilizer prices up by more than three-quarters and corn by more than 40%. But the impact on the food supply is somewhat mitigated by the fact that all these events take place in winter, and not at harvest time..

If farmers in Ukraine are unable to grow and harvest wheat by July 2022, the supply chain will be interrupted. But even if they can, there is no guarantee that they will be able to use the necessary infrastructure to transport grain to ports..

Rising corn prices could also drive up animal feed costs and fuel further increases in meat prices..

Palm oil prices have also jumped as markets scramble to find an alternative to sunflower oil, which has stalled in Black Sea ports..

Shipping data shows that commercial shipping to and from Ukraine has largely ground to a halt following attacks by Russian forces and reports of explosions at key ports in Odessa and Mariupol. Tracking services have not identified ships that would cross the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black and Azov Seas. Dozens of ships routinely pass through the strait daily, carrying steel, grain and manufactured goods.. Lloyd's List intelligence data shows that more than a hundred ships are stuck at the southern entrance to Kerch.

While the prices of energy and other commodities are already causing global inflation, any interruption in supplies from Russia and Ukraine could push prices even higher and weaken the global economy, especially in Europe..

According to Capital Economics, the worst-case scenario for an escalation of the conflict and sanctions could push oil prices up to $140.. per barrel.

Experts say Russia and Ukraine play a critical role in the global production of neon, a key ingredient in microchip manufacturing, and wars and conflicts could exacerbate shortages in semiconductor components as well as supplies in the automotive industry..

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Two years of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown how minor disruptions in one region of the globe can have major consequences in another. Shortages and price spikes in a single commodity — be it gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — could trigger global turmoil like an avalanche for a world still struggling to recover from the effects of the pandemic..

Losses to the global economy are no longer just significant, but huge. The world's low-income people will be hardest hit as food and utility bills for gas and heat account for the bulk of their spending.

The greatest economic damage will be in Russia and, of course, in Ukraine, although it is extremely difficult to assess the scale of losses inflicted on the country attacked by the aggressor, European analysts say.. They can be understood, because every day of war means new losses, sanctions and risks for the global market.. It will be possible to objectively assess the damage caused only after the end of the war and understanding of the duration of the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation.