Russia has no money to wage war for more than two weeks, within three months after the start of the “special operation”, severe financial and economic necessity may force a ceasefire. This was stated in an interview with Forbes by the former chairman of the Central Bank, Sergei Dubinin, who led the regulator during the 1998 default..

“It is probably possible to conduct a limited military operation for two weeks within the current budget. But to conduct it for already, say, a year - this requires a completely different economy, to mobilize other resources, ”Dubinin noted..

He told how long Russia can withstand the war economy, whether the banking system will withstand and what level of inflation the state expects..

According to Dubinin, the Russian economy will have to be transferred to a military footing.

Dubinin stressed that in order to create the army that existed in the Russian Federation at the time of the introduction of troops into Ukraine, according to official budget data, about 12 years spent 6% of GDP under classified articles on national security..

" So somewhere around 70% of the annual GDP is spent on creating the armed forces. Now they're spending. Within, presumably, 3 months, you can probably spend most of, well, at least half of all accumulated. So, it is necessary to mobilize 35% of GDP to continue the war.

At the same time, according to him, if the "

" But obviously, nevertheless, a tough need can force a ceasefire and switch to the regime of some kind of agreements,"

MONEY EMISSION.

Also, the ex-chairman of the Central Bank predicted Russia's hyperinflation for a long period, the issue of money, and the support of the population so that it could at least provide itself with food.

“Most likely, food production, increased demand for it, certain services will recover.. The question is whether there will be money for this at all.? Yes, there will be money, because you can always issue domestic loans. All wars were fought on credit. These debts were covered by the current issue. Let's assume that the scheme for issuing loans will be as follows: banks buy Russian loans, then they are pledged for transactions with the Central Bank, swaps with securities and, accordingly, the Central Bank accumulates public debt. It's practically a money issue.. Therefore, inflation of 20%, which is predicted by the end of this year, will at least remain in this scheme for a long time, and will soon increase. But some part of the population will certainly receive increased social support just to buy groceries. Or maybe some card schemes will be used if the “special operation”, God forbid, drags on for more than three months,” he said..

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According to Sergei Dubinin, if such a “war economy” is introduced, it will put millions of Russians on the brink of survival..

“The war economy is still temporary, you need to get out of it, it cannot exist indefinitely.. The garage economy will flourish, multiply. We have more than 20 million people of working age who were not officially employed anywhere. In fact, they worked, but did not pay taxes and sold their labor just for cash.. That's how people survive, that's how it was in the 90s. Somewhere there will be a work book, somewhere there will even be work in this position, and then everyone will survive in any way,” the ex-Chairman of the Central Bank emphasized.

DEFAULT THREATS.

According to Dubinin, if we turn a blind eye to the fact that the Russian economy is already entering a state of default, then problems will then hang on the country for an indefinite future..

“Now our enterprises will face the problem of what has become known as a default, that is, regular payments on external debt. In the future, all this will hang for many years as mutual claims that it is not clear how to solve. You can, of course, now put it all aside and say: “We don’t care. A default will not add anything to the existing situation for us.”. But why create more problems for the future? "

“PEOPLE WILL NEVER AGREE TO LIFE LIKE IN NORTH KOREA”.

According to Sergei Dubinin, they will not have time to turn the Russian economy into something like Iran or North Korea, since this will not be accepted, first of all, by the population of the country. He also stressed that Russia will not survive on its own technologies and production..

“In my opinion, it will not be possible to turn Iran and North Korea into a pariah country for many years. First of all, we do not have the idea for which it is advisable to do this.. The second is the scale [of the territory]. Third, an educated population. People are unlikely to agree to such an existence as in North Korea. You see, the idea that we go our own way has been in the history of Russia for a very long time.. But this never closed the desire to draw on the West and ideas, and technologies, and military skills..

All capitalist modernization since the times of the Russian Empire, and even socialist modernization from the times of the Soviet Union, is 150 years of technology imports. If we want to build a relatively modern economy, sooner or later one or another version of computer robotics [for example] will have to be bought. Perhaps it will be in the form of an advance payment of almost 100%. Well, in the future, again [need] to try to attract foreign investors and solve a number of problems for mutual benefit. That is, a return to full-fledged international exchange,” stressed the ex-head of the Central Bank.