JPMorgan analysts have revised their previous forecast for oil prices, global GDP growth, and global inflation.. The reason for the correction is geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

According to the new forecast, taking into account the impact of a possible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the financial market, as well as the consequences of possible US sanctions against Moscow, which may be introduced in the event of its invasion of Ukraine, the price of a barrel of oil will reach $150, instead of the previously planned $100 per barrel..

In the event that the price of oil reaches this mark, the growth rate of GDP in the world in the first half of the year may decrease to 0.9%, while at the moment growth is expected to be within 4.1%.

Changes will also affect global inflation. Under the scenario described above, inflation will reach - 7.2% instead of the projected 3%. This will force the central banks of the countries of the world to tighten their monetary policy even more..

In Ukraine, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel are growing rapidly.

This means that prices are growing in small wholesale and, accordingly, in gas station chains.. Wholesalers review prices several times a day.

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On January 20, the National Bank raised the discount rate to 10%. The regulator also revised all its forecasts for the development of the Ukrainian economy..

Read about what awaits the economy of Ukraine this year in the article by Yulia Samaeva — “Devaluation, inflation, debts. Economic Consequences of Political Tension”.