Russian currency in the near future does not expect anything good.
Support factors are exhausted; it is better not to rely on oil, but new sanctions are already looming on the horizon. This morning, the ruble is strengthening against major world currencies..
As of 10:19 Moscow time, the US dollar fell in price by 18 kopecks.. His course fell below 67 rubles and stood at 66.93. The European currency depreciated by 20 kopecks, reaching a level of 75.53 rubles, according to the Moscow Exchange website. Experts believe that this week will be the last island of stability for the ruble, a temporary lull before the storm.. The first warning signals may sound today: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has planned to hold an auction for the sale of federal loan bonds, but the event may fail due to the cautious attitude of investors. This is due to the growth of geopolitical uncertainty due to the aggravation of relations with Ukraine and the unclear reaction of the West.. The conflict in the Kerch Strait may speed up the decision to impose on our country the next package of sanctions. The situation for the ruble is not the most rosy. First, the Russian currency with the end of the tax period has ceased to receive support from exporters. They no longer need to change large amounts of foreign exchange earnings into rubles.. Therefore, now quotes will begin to react more acutely to external stimuli, for example, to the situation on the commodity market.. Secondly, oil quotes are unstable and unpredictable.. Saudi Arabia has promised to reduce the level of production in December, but so far it reports on record volumes of extraction, which causes a wave of sales and a sharp decline in prices for raw materials. This position of Riyadh suggests that participants in the OPEC + transaction may not agree to extend the agreement on the reduction of production. It is quite possible that Saudi Arabia will be led by US President Donald Trump, who calls for increased production so that commodity prices continue to fall. The position of the Russian Federation also remains unclear.
“The main incentive for domestic companies not to reduce current activity is the desire not to lose market share amid record growth in US oil production, and new projects planned for the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 only confirm investor concerns,” Rossiyskaya Gazeta said. social analyst for eToro investors in Russia and the CIS, Mikhail Mashchenko. According to the general opinion of experts, in the very near future, the rate of the Russian currency will drop to 67.5 rubles per dollar, after which it will continue to decline.