The short-term fall in the ruble exchange rate caused by the exacerbation of the political situation around the Kerch Strait proved to be a passing episode. Domestic currency quickly recovered and began to strengthen again, ignoring the hysteria of the Ukrainian leadership, which announced the introduction of martial law in the country. Today, on the Moscow stock exchange, during the first hours of trading, the ruble appreciably strengthened against the dollar and the euro. As of 12:44 Moscow time, the US dollar slipped by 41 kopecks, and the single European currency fell by 47 kopecks.. Thus, for one "green" on the stock exchange they gave 66.7 rubles, and the "European" went for 75.52 rubles per unit, according to the website of the trading platform. This development was a surprise for the experts, because after the armed clash at the Crimean Bridge, everything said that the ruble would not be good enough. So it was on Monday. "The positions of the ruble strongly shaken against foreign currencies against the background of the worsening geopolitical crisis with Ukraine. Because of the situation in the Kerch Strait, the market lays in prices the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, ”explained Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov in a commentary for Prime.. Experts predicted the fall in the value of the ruble by 15% in the case of the introduction of the next package of anti-Russian sanctions in the context of the situation in the Sea of ??Azov. “The new sanctions will be introduced almost unequivocally and may even touch the Russian ruble sovereign debt,” said Alpari’s analytical department director, Alexander Razuvaev.. As a result, the next fall in the ruble exchange rate is inevitable, which in this case may amount to 10-15%, he added. However, on Tuesday everything returned to normal. According to the expert, "the weakening of the ruble was restrained by the tax period and the recovery in oil prices". Over the past day, the price of Brent crude rose from $ 58.41 to $ 61.1 per barrel. Thus, the situation in the Kerch Strait has virtually no effect on the stability of the Russian currency and the demand for Russian assets..

If escalation of tensions can be avoided, then this factor can be completely ignored when forecasting exchange rates.. On Sunday, November 25, the border ships of the Federal Security Service of Russia detained three Ukrainian warships for illegal crossing of the sea border of the Russian Federation. As a result of the collision, three Ukrainian sailors were slightly injured.. Kerch Strait was closed for shipping. Ukraine announced martial law. Moscow considered the actions of Ukrainian naval sailors a pre-planned provocation.