Russian currency is at the mercy of controversy. It is influenced by multidirectional factors, and therefore it is almost impossible to predict how the ruble exchange rate will behave in the near future.. At the same time, it can be said with confidence that after the New Year holidays the pressure on the “Russian” will increase, and it will be difficult for him to stay on the current frontiers.. Before the weekend, exchange-traded players traditionally take profits, and therefore today the ruble predictably weakens against the dollar and the euro.
As of 11:45 Moscow time, the US currency rose in price by 6 kopecks compared with yesterday's closing level, to 65.95 rubles.. "European" has risen in price by 20 kopecks, to 74.88 rubles, according to the data of the trading platform. In recent days, the ruble has noticeably strengthened.. He managed to withstand the fall in oil prices, and the foreign policy agenda is positive for him. "Market participants are waiting for a meeting of leaders of Russia and the United States during the G20 summit. In this regard, the pause in the management of new sanctions has become a positive factor for the Russian ruble.. Perhaps, traders began to buy back the ruble, since the State Department did not decide on the content of the new package of sanctions, ”suggested Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov (quoted in the Prime). According to him, in the coming days, nothing threatens the ruble:.
"Against the background of reducing geopolitical risks and the recovery of oil prices from ruble pairs, we should expect a further fall. The ruble will receive additional support from the tax period ". It starts on November 26. The deputy director of the analytical department of Alpari adds to this that "the ruble is supported by a tough monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the absence of the Ministry of Finance’s interventions in the domestic market, as well as the balance of payments surplus in October". If you look into the more distant future, then "the main negative factor that will restrain the growth of the ruble will be the price of oil".
Brent mark barrel still costs $ 66-67. "Despite reports of a decrease in production by OPEC countries in 2019. , (oil) in no hurry to recover positions. Moreover, the potential for falling prices has not been exhausted.. By the end of the month, Brent quotes may drop to $ 62 a barrel, "the specialist said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.. "In the second half of November, markets are waiting for American statistics, which, judging by expectations, should be very good. On expectations, the dollar will continue to go up, and the only consolation for Russians will be the fact that the euro at this point, on the contrary, will be cheaper.
In fact, two weeks the ruble will balance on the verge of a new fall. Taking into account the fact that holidays and vacations are ahead, it is better to look closely at the purchase of currency right now when couples are falling, "Kokoreva stressed. After the New Year, the factors supporting the ruble will finally run out, and in the face of expanding sanctions, the ruble will begin a prolonged fall.
The tight monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve will give this process additional acceleration..