The ruble did not notice the oil disaster

15 November 2018, 11:13 | Economy
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Falling hydrocarbon prices will weaken the Russian currency. However, this fall will not be so critical, since other factors will help keep the ruble afloat.. At the beginning of the week, the price of a barrel of Brent fell below $ 65. The ruble fell slightly against this background, but yesterday it made up for lost time..

Trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange closed a significant increase in the ruble against major world currencies. The dollar on the basis of trades fell by 1.11 rubles, to 67.02 rubles. Euro fell in price by 91 kopecks, to 75.96 rubles, according to the data of the trading platform. The main reason for the resilience of the Russian currency in the oil collapse was that it had won back all the negatives in advance.. In the wake of the sanctions rhetoric of Western countries, the ruble has become cheaper since last week, and now there is some rebound and stabilization of the dollar-ruble pair, Anatoly Saltykov, head of the SMP-Bank’s strategy development department, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The US Congress postponed until next year the consideration of the issue of new sanctions against Russia, and this good news blocked the negative from the cheap oil. Other good news for the ruble was successful auctions for the placement of Russian federal loan bonds.. In addition, the ruble is stable due to the continuing high balance of payments in Russia and the beginning of the tax period, which is able to provide local support for the Russian currency, said the deputy chairman of the board of Loko Bank, Andrei Lyushin. Due to the fact that the positive signals are stronger, the ruble today may continue to strengthen against the dollar and the euro. However, after the release of statistics in the United States, which is expected to show an increase in crude oil reserves, the Russian currency may go into the negative. The ruble remains dependent on the cost of energy in the medium term. So far, the fluctuations are not so significant that the Russian currency is responsive to changes in oil prices.. However, when the price of oil falls to $ 60 per barrel and below the ruble, it will not be able to ignore it and will begin to decline, experts say.

And such a scenario is quite possible if in December the members of OPEC + decide to increase the extraction of energy resources to compensate for the effects of sanctions against Iran. However, one should not forget that OPEC called the “comfortable” price of $ 70 per barrel, so the December decision could be aimed at consolidating the cost of oil on this value..

In this case, the oil factor will not put pressure on the ruble, and taking into account the transfer of the sanctions decision, the Russian currency will comfortably welcome the New Year holidays.




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