The strengthening of the ruble, which began last week, was forecast to be replaced by another recession. However, this does not happen.

On Tuesday, the "Russian" all day strengthened against the dollar and the euro just at the very end of trading slid down against the background of sanctions news. Most likely today, the ruble rate will again move upwards. As a result of yesterday's trading, the US dollar has risen by almost 6 cents, to 65.89 rubles. The euro rose by almost 19 kopecks, to 77.55 rubles. This is stated on the website of the Moscow Stock Exchange. But experts do not see in some weakening of the ruble signs of a trend change: the situation on the market for the Russian currency continues to be favorable. This will continue until at least October. Several factors contribute to the ruble. First, the RF Ministry of Finance before the end of the year refused to buy foreign currency in the domestic market to replenish the reserve fund. Ruble sighed with relief: the Ministry's intervention leveled the entire positive effect of rising oil prices and exacerbated the impact of rumors about imminent introduction of new sanctions. The suspension of buying currency increased the supply in the market by $ 6 billion a month. Earlier, the ruble reacted very sharply to any changes in the price of black gold, but with the introduction of the budget rule (when all the additional income from the sale of oil at a price more than $ 40 per barrel began to translate into dollar reserves), the correlation between the two assets disappeared. In the absence of foreign exchange interventions, the ruble has more chances for growth. Secondly, the oil market has a positive situation. Participants in the OPEC + deal adhere to previously reached agreements on the level of oil production, despite the high demand. If the growth of oil quotes continues further, to the area of ??$ 90 per barrel of Brent crude oil, the ruble will get every chance of serious strengthening. Third, the ruble is supported by the stabilization of the currencies of emerging economies. "Russians" looks much better against their Asian and Latin American "brethren". Their strengthening means slowing the growth of the dollar, and this is in the hands of the ruble. Fourth, the strengthening of the ruble leads to a tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. The regulator raised the rate and, if necessary, is ready to continue doing so. "The increase in inflation risks has made the rhetoric of the regulator more rigid. Since inflation is at the head of the entire policy of the Central Bank of Russia, then tough rhetoric will remain until the end of the year, stimulating the strengthening of the ruble, "- said Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the analytical department of Alpari. Her words lead "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". Two factors can exert negative influence on the ruble in the near future, and both are related to the US.

First, if the Federal Reserve raises the key rate, the dollar's reaction will not be long in coming and will result in a fall in the currencies of developing countries. The second is the preservation of sanctions risks. On the eve of Washington imposed restrictions on 12 Russian companies, which was perceived by investors as a dangerous signal. Soon, the Congress will continue the discussion of sanctions. If they get to the Russian national debt, the collapse of the ruble will be inevitable.