The Russian ruble this week may get some respite in the confrontation with foreign currencies. A protective ring formed around it, and until September, when the question of anti-Russian sanctions is raised in the United States, the domestic monetary unit is able to remain at a stable level. Yesterday, at the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble rate declined rapidly in this August tradition. At the end of the day, the dollar rose by 42 kopecks, the euro rose by 92 kopecks. For the main currencies were given 67.52 rubles and 78.87 rubles, respectively, according to the data of the trading platform. Entered on the eve of the restrictions on the supply in Russia of electronic equipment of dual-use leveled all the positive factors.
Therefore, nothing prevents the dollar from climbing upwards, believes the analyst of Alpari company Vladislav Antonov (his words are quoted by Prime).
In his opinion, the American currency can grow to 68-69 rubles. Other experts hold the opposite opinion. According to Evgeny Vorobyov, head of the analytical department of Ingosstrakh-Investments, the ruble received some breathing space in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that the factors supporting it prevail over those that lead to its weakening. The main positive factors for the ruble are the peak of the tax period, which falls on August 27-28 (at this time, the demand for Russian currency on the domestic market increases sharply), and rising oil prices. Black gold is in a state of uncertainty, it is rising, then falling in price. On the eve of Brent oil exceeded the figure of $ 76 per barrel, which is good news for the ruble. Another supporting factor is the refusal of the RF Ministry of Finance to purchase foreign currency for replenishment of reserves by the end of September. At the same time, the general unstable situation in emerging markets threatens the "Russian" with new problems. The course of Turkish lira in recent weeks is flying into the abyss. At the beginning of the week, it again became cheaper, notes "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". The continuation of turbulence in the Turkish market can draw on other emerging markets, including the Russian. Investors are frightened, and their weak interest in emerging markets, as well as concerns about the development of sanctions history in the Russian Federation lead to the fact that the ruble can not compensate for its own undervaluation.
Most likely, in the coming week, positive and negative factors will finally balance each other, and the rate of the domestic currency will settle in the region of 66.5-68 rubles per dollar and 77.4-78.4 rubles per euro. In September, as previously reported, the ruble may be under severe pressure. The US Congress will begin consideration of the issue of new sanctions that could lead to the introduction of a ban on the purchase by foreigners of Russian federal loan bonds. This will be a serious blow to the stability of the ruble and throughout the Russian economy.