The ruble was left with a chance to escape

23 August 2018, 10:55 | Economy
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The ruble continues its rapid decline. The introduction of a new package of US sanctions still did not spare the "Russian", although experts also promised that the restrictions are already taken into account in the current price and there will not be a catastrophic fall. At the same time, the domestic currency has finally got a chance to strengthen its positions a bit. At auction on Wednesday, August 22, the US dollar rose to the ruble by 75 kopecks and reached the level of 68.03 rubles per unit. The euro showed an even more powerful leap and went up by as much as 1.05 rubles, to 78.9 rubles per unit, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange. Despite the fact that the sanctions imposed on the eve of the sanctions were already played to some extent by the ruble, it nevertheless went to its local minima. It is alarming that the ruble has so slipped from a package of restrictions that affects the Russian economy only a little (they concern only the ban on the supply of dual-use products). Now on the agenda of the US Congress is a bill on the introduction of restrictions against strategic companies, Russian government debt and state-owned banks. These measures will be considered in September. If legislators adopt this document, for the ruble and the entire domestic economy this will turn out to be much more painful consequences. Another factor of pressure on the Russian currency is the talks between the US and Chinese authorities on trade issues. Market participants do not believe that they will end effectively. In a situation of uncertainty, investors prefer not to invest in risky assets, and therefore the demand for Russian bonds (and therefore for the Russian currency, which is needed to buy them) falls. Before the arrival of the autumn wave of unpleasant sanctions rumors and news, there is little time left, and in these weeks the ruble "can count on a period of corrective growth, which will contribute to rising oil prices," Darya Sozonova, an analyst with the Forex Club, told "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". According to her, oil quotes are growing due to the cheapening of the dollar amid criticism by US President Donald Tramp of the Federal Reserve's policy of increasing the rate. At the moment, Brent crude oil is traded in the range of $ 70.3-75.9 per barrel. "Additional support for the ruble will start the tax period in the country. Until the end of August against the dollar, the ruble could return to the range of 67-67.

5 rubles, against the euro - move in the corridor of 77.5-78 rubles, "predicts Sozonova. A less optimistic prediction is provided by Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. "The ruble has no chance of strengthening to foreign currencies. Under the forecast I look forward to further strengthening the dollar to 68.9-69 rubles. I do not exclude that after the mark of 69 rubles for the US dollar volatility in the market will increase. Serious resistance is at the level of 71.5 rubles, "- quotes the expert" Prime ".




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