The ruble will stand under new sanctions

22 August 2018, 11:49 | Economy
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The Russian currency continues to lose in price compared to the dollar and the euro. However, the catastrophic drop in quotations due to the introduction of a new package of US sanctions is unlikely to happen. The market was waiting for this event and therefore already in advance took everything into account. At the auction on the Moscow stock exchange on Tuesday, August 21, the "Russian" sank 17 cents to the dollar and 76 cents to the euro. At the close of the site for $ 1 gave 67.27 rubles, for 1 euro - 77.85 rubles, according to the data of the exchange. This justified the worst forecasts. Experts previously warned that against the backdrop of negative external news for the ruble, it may become cheaper for a whole week. "The national currency is cheaper due to the flight of investors from ruble assets in anticipation of news regarding new sanctions from the US", - explained the dynamics of currency pairs, Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov (quoted on "Prime"). Today, for troubles for the ruble (trade wars, strengthening of the dollar, lower demand for Russian bonds), one more. From August 22, a new package of US sanctions should come into force. It involves the imposition of restrictions on the supply of dual-use products to Russia. The next wave of restriction is introduced in connection with the use of chemical weapons in the British city of Salisbury against the former GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia. Western countries are accused of this operation in Moscow. Sanctions will intensify the negative background, but a sharp decline in the value of the ruble is likely to occur. The new package of sanctions will not significantly affect the Russian economy, since it is already included in the quotes. "The market has already, in general," digested "this news, therefore, we do not expect a significant increase in volatility from this factor," RIA Novosti quotes Darya Zhelannova, an analyst at Alfa Capital.. "Negative surprises are possible. Attempt to pressure the market will. But I would not overestimate their consequences. In the yard of August, many traders and investors on vacation, "- agreed with this thesis deputy general director for the development of retail business of the company" Veles Capital "Alexei Bushuev. According to him, the movement of exchange rates on emotions is possible, but thoughtful investors will not make rash steps. The restrictions imposed by the Americans are not so significant for the Russian stock market and the domestic currency rate due to the fact that the ban on most of the dual-use products has been in effect since 2014. Much worse, if Congress decides to impose sanctions against Russian state-owned banks and prohibit foreigners from investing in federal loan bonds, said Finam analyst Sergei Drozdov.

Theoretically, according to the initiative of Senator Lindsay Graham, Russian banks may be forbidden to conduct settlements in dollars. However, the likelihood of such measures being taken is extremely small. Such a bill may be subject to strong adjustment or even decline. In the next few days, the ruble will remain in its current positions:.

above 67.5 rubles per dollar and up to 77.5 rubles per euro. In September, even under the most unfavorable scenario, the "Russian" is unlikely to fall below 69 rubles for a unit of American currency.




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