The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at its meeting on Friday, July 27, for the third time in a row, left the key rate unchanged at 7.25% per annum. The rate on deposit operations, which became the main instrument of the Central Bank to manage the money market, will be 6.25% per annum. Loans at a fixed rate will cost 8.25% per annum. Thus, the Bank of Russia made it clear that the campaign that began on easing monetary policy in the form of lowering interest rates has now been frozen. It is frozen for a specific and short time, or for the foreseeable future, the Central Bank does not report. At the same time, according to the data published on the website of the Central Bank itself, the suspension of monetary policy mitigation is explained by the increase in taxes and the geopolitical situation. Let's remind that earlier the Central Bank forecasted inflation by the results of this year to 3.5-4%, and more than 4% in 2019. due to the increase in VAT. In the opinion of a number of experts, the Central Bank will return to the lowering of the rate in the best scenario not earlier than next summer. Experts agree that it was the decision of the Bank of Russia to suspend the rate cut that was the main reason for the ruble strengthening last week. Moreover, given the fact that the resumption of the rate cut is not likely to happen soon, many of them believe that this will ensure a relatively long period of appreciation of the ruble. In favor of the Russian currency, and says that the oil prices continue to remain at a high enough level, despite the growing "shale threat". Also, the attempts of some American senators to extend sanctions on Russian foreign debt. Against this background, some analysts admit that during the coming week the ruble rate will grow, aiming to mark 62 rubles. If he manages to break through this level, then one should wait for his further strengthening to 60 rubles. per dollar. The fate of the dollar in relation to the single European currency can not be worse. This is explained by the fact that on top of all, the euro is harder to hold against the US dollar. This, in turn, means that the euro will become a weaker opponent for the ruble, compared to the dollar. However, there is also a directly opposite view, suggesting that the ruble will not be able to strengthen its positions, and ultimately it again has to fall. First of all, this is due to the fact that the US has taken a course to strengthen its own currency. Since the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump has been trying his best to reduce the US trade balance, which is an indisputable factor in favor of the appreciation of the dollar. It is also worth paying attention to the seventh consecutive week continuing, the fall of the Chinese yuan.

The prolonged weakening of the yuan, in turn, puts pressure on commodity prices. Metals are already getting cheaper, oil has also stopped growing, despite all geopolitical fears and the Iranian deficit. Thus, to tie the third successive case of the Central Bank keeping the key rate at the same level, with the forthcoming significant strengthening of the ruble, at least precipitately. Although all the direct signs, before the ruble so far, good prospects are opening up.