In the last month of summer, the Russian currency will be under the strongest pressure. The main negative factors for the ruble will be trade wars, the threat of new sanctions against the Russian Federation and foreign exchange interventions by the RF Ministry of Finance. Nevertheless, the catastrophic collapse of the course will not happen. Today, on July 27, at the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble is losing ground slightly. As of 10:41 MSK, the value of the dollar increased by 1 kopeck, to 62.97 rubles, and the euro went up by 10 cents, to 73.37 rubles, according to the website of the trading platform. The key event of Friday - the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at a key rate - is likely to pass for the ruble unnoticed. According to all forecasts, the regulator will refrain from changing the rate, and this scenario is incorporated in ruble prices as the most probable. Yesterday the ruble also weakened slightly to the major world currencies. This happened despite the fact that oil prices rose on news from Saudi Arabia. Barrel brand Brent traded on the eve of above $ 74. The authorities of the kingdom decided to suspend the export of black gold through the Bab el Mandeb Strait after the attack on oil tankers in the Red Sea by the Yemeni rebels. On the other hand, if it were not oil, the ruble would have fallen even more. The Russian currency is adversely affected by the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance in the open market under the budget rule, according to which additional oil revenues are transferred to foreign exchange reserves at a price of more than $ 40 per barrel. The volume of currency interventions for the next month will be known on August 3. But most likely the financial department will not reduce purchases. This will lead to the fact that the ruble will sink all August. Another unpleasant factor for the Russian currency is the ongoing trade wars - primarily between the US and China. They provoke an outflow of liquidity from emerging market assets. Investors try to wait out a period of uncertainty in a quiet harbor and prefer US bonds as the most reliable financial instrument. By doing this, the White House, by launching trade wars, helps its own currency to strengthen itself. Sanction rhetoric can also add to the volatility ruble. The Senate is planning to introduce a new package of restrictions in relation to our country, and this terribly makes investors nervous. However, all points to the fact that if sanctions are strengthened, it will happen not in July or in August. According to Andrei Kochetkov, the leading analyst, "Opening a broker", significant changes in the ruble exchange rate in August due to political risks should still not be expected.

"The case beyond statements about any restrictions against the Russian Federation is unlikely to reach, since the US Congress will go on vacation," - quotes the expert "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". Experts believe that next month the Russian currency will weaken slightly compared to its current values. But the fall will not be strong. The currency will be traded in the range of 63-64.5 rubles for $ 1. If no new negative factors are added, the trading corridor may turn out to be wider: 61-64.5 rubles for $ 1.