The trade war between the US and China, as well as the threat of new sanctions against Russia, put enormous pressure on the ruble. In the near future, the US dollar will be strengthened, and the Russian currency can only rely on the support of exporters who need to stockpile rubles in order to pay taxes. During yesterday's trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the domestic currency synchronously cheaper both against the dollar and the euro. "American" rose by 26 cents and stopped at around 63.32 rubles. "European" has strengthened by 22 kopecks and came close to 74 rubles (73.97), according to the website of the trading platform. The depreciation of the ruble occurred despite the fact that oil quotes are creeping upwards. Due to the decrease in black gold reserves in the US by 3.2 million barrels per week, the Brent oil blend has risen by 0.6% and now stands at $ 73.91 per barrel,. Specialists, however, it does not surprise: now the ruble rate does not depend so much on the cost of hydrocarbons, as usual. "The key driver for the ruble in recent months is the general attitude of investors to the entire group of emerging markets, and in this respect even the dynamics of oil quotes have a very mediocre influence on the Russian currency," said Mikhail Poddubsky, Promsvyazbank's chief analyst, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Investors are now wary of risky assets - the blame for all the trade wars unleashed by Washington. Investments in federal loan bonds of Russia and securities of other countries are declining, so the currencies of developing countries are losing in price. The impact on the value of the ruble can also be provided today's report of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Senate about the recent meetings of US President Donald Trump with the leaders of Russia and North Korea. This event may contribute to the emergence of new statements about the need to expand the sanctions pressure, and the Russian currency for such verbal injections reacts very sensitively. On the other hand, the recent calls by US senators to tighten sanctions the Russian market ignored. Support for national currency this week may peak tax payments, which falls on today. Russian companies pay VAT, MET and excise duties, which can contribute to a local increase in demand for ruble liquidity. In addition, on July 30, domestic companies pay income tax, which means that until then rubles in the domestic market will be in great demand. Finally, it is worth waiting and statements from the European regulator.

If the European Central Bank does not make strong comments in favor of tightening its monetary policy, the positive tone of the markets may persist for the entire current week. This will mean that the ruble will avoid additional pressure, and therefore it will be able to smooth out the negative impact of news from overseas. By the end of this week, the dollar will settle in the region of 63.5 rubles. In the event of aggressive statements about sanctions, the ruble may weaken even more.