On the last day of the working week with the Russian currency, there should be no shocks. The ruble went into a quiet harbor and will stay there for some time before the appearance of new signals affecting its course. At the opening of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the ruble rose to the dollar and the euro. The American currency fell in price by 20 kopecks, to 63.46 rubles.
The European lowered quotes by 23 kopecks, to 73.91 rubles, according to the website of the trading platform. Specialists note that the value of the American currency is reduced to the majority of world currencies after statements by US President Donald Trump about the policy of the Federal Reserve System and the dollar rate. In an interview with American TV reporters, the head of state said that he was "not delighted" with the fact that in response to the development of the economy there is an increase in the interest rate. The president also said that a strong dollar "puts the US at a disadvantage," notes "Prime". The main event of the upcoming week, which can affect the value of the domestic currency, should be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on Monetary Policy. In the summer months, inflation slowed due to lower prices for seasonal fruits and vegetables. Therefore, the Central Bank may well afford to again reduce the key rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 7%. "The cheapening of money in the current situation is extremely important from the point of view of supporting business activity in our country at an acceptable level," the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper quotes the expert of the International Financial Center Vladimir Rozhankovsky. Investors expect a decrease in rates, and therefore the very decision on ruble quotes will affect slightly. Much more important will be the rhetoric of the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina - how optimistic will be its forecasts. "In the case of sounding any systemic problems and concerns on the Russian money market, the ruble may show an additional drawdown in the area of ??63.9-64.1 against the dollar and 74.3-74.45 against the euro," the expert predicts.. The ruble's positions remain very shaky. Despite the absence of sharply negative geopolitical news, capital flows from the Russian stock market. On average, it takes up to 1.5% of the trade volume per day.
The amendments adopted by the State Duma last week on currency control may increase the outflow of money from Russia and lead to an additional shortage of foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic market. For the ruble this is bad news.
The ruble may also be affected by US statistics.
The foreign exchange market will be sensitive to data on the number of orders for durable goods in the US (this is one of the generally recognized leading indicators of the state of an economy) and the country's GDP for the first half of 2018. These figures will be released on Thursday and Friday next week. If the statistics prove positive, the dollar will rise and under its pressure the ruble exchange rate will go down.