The Russian currency will soon be guided by oil quotations. Depending on where the curve turns, the ruble will grow or fall. The geopolitical factor will for some time recede into the background. "The Russian currency, which traditionally depends on world oil prices, in the short term can survive quite a sharp ups and downs, as recently we often see significant price jumps in" black gold ". But, most likely, these stages of volatility will be short-term, as we observed with the last fluctuations in oil prices, "believes Forex Club analyst Ivan Marchena.
His opinion leads "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". These words are confirmed by the news of the foreign exchange market. This morning, the price of oil dropped a bit, so the major world currencies went up to the ruble. The US dollar rose in price by 25 kopecks, to 62.85 rubles. The euro strengthened by 12 kopecks and began to cost 73.08 rubles, according to the website of the Moscow Stock Exchange. The fluctuations in oil prices lead to news, which recently are quite contradictory. That Libya reports on the growth of supplies of black gold to the world market, and hydrocarbons are starting to get cheaper. Then the US declares a decline in commercial reserves, and oil again becomes more expensive. These "swings" will continue for some time. "If the rebound does not happen in the next few days (and such a scenario is highly probable), the ruble will have to regain the oil drop that has occurred, it will be under the pressure of the sellers", - quotes Prime Analyst of Alpari Roman Tkachuk. Another factor that influenced the currency quotes was the speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the Congress. He actually stated that the regulator will continue to raise the key rate. This contributes to the high growth rate of the US economy and stable inflation levels, explained another senior analyst of Alpari, Anna Bodrova, in a commentary to the agency "Prime". As a result, US government bonds increased their profitability, and along with them, the dollar. The last week the currency market was guided by expectations from the meeting of the US and Russian presidents.
As a result of the talks, no fateful statements were made, but the overall positive attitude of the leaders indicates a decrease in the level of tension. Therefore, the political risks around Russia have subsided, and this will not put pressure on the ruble. However, the presidents did not agree on the terms and conditions for the lifting of sanctions from the Russian Federation. So, restrictive measures continue to negatively affect the ruble exchange rate. If not for this, the Russian currency would now be worth 2-4% more, calculated at the Bank of Russia.