Dollar set a price

16 July 2018, 12:08 | Economy
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The Russian currency is growing in price in the run-up to the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. However, this strengthening will soon rest against the ceiling set by the RF Ministry of Finance: in an expensive ruble, the authorities are not interested. At the opening of trading on July 16, the ruble appreciated by 14 cents to the dollar and by 13 cents to the euro. Thus, the current value of the US currency is 62.42 rubles, the European - 72.96 rubles, according to the website of the Moscow Stock Exchange. According to experts, to strengthen the "Russian" there are several good reasons. First of all, this is the resumption of demand for domestic government bonds from foreign players. Last week, the Ministry of Finance within the framework of only one auction raised $ 40 billion on the sale of debt securities - a record figure since April. "In the second quarter, the inflow of foreign capital has declined markedly, but it all indicates the return of players and their desire to earn on price increases in the case of productive negotiations between Trump and Putin," said analyst of the social network for eToro investors in Russia and the CIS, Mikhail Mashchenko in comments for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". "Sanctions with Russia in the near future, of course, will not be lifted, but the fact of the meeting is positive. If at the end of the meeting the parties come to agreements on key issues or outline ways to find consensus, this will be a major help for the ruble, as well as Russian stocks and bonds. If there is no progress and the summit ends with on-duty statements, the ruble may fall back a little, "said Roman Tkachuk, a senior analyst at Alpari, in an interview with Prime.. The second factor in strengthening the ruble was the beginning of the next tax period. Domestic companies buy the national currency to pay off the state, so the demand for it is growing. At the same time, the ruble continues to be under external pressure. First, the price of oil can not recover to its usual values ??after a short-term collapse last week from $ 79 to $ 74 per barrel. Investors expected complete isolation of Iran in connection with the sanctions imposed by the United States and were afraid of a deficit, so the price of black gold grew. However, it has now become obvious that Tehran will be able to avoid total isolation, and as a result of the trade conflict between the US and China, the demand for fuel will decrease. Secondly, the Ministry of Finance continues to conduct currency transactions within the framework of the budget rule, sending foreign currency to the bills. Thirdly, speculators continue to abandon risky assets (which include ruble bonds) due to ongoing trade wars. However, even if oil again starts to grow rapidly in price, this does not guarantee proportional strengthening of the Russian currency. The more expensive hydrocarbon raw materials become, the more funds the Ministry of Finance will allocate to purchases of foreign currency.

It has long been known that a too strong ruble is not beneficial to the state, because because of this, budget revenues from exports. "With the increase in the cost of oil to $ 100, the ruble exchange rate can at best stay at around 50 per dollar, which will be quite comfortable for business," concluded Mashchenko. Negotiations of the Presidents of Russia and the United States will be held today, July 16, in Helsinki. This will be the first full-fledged meeting of the two leaders.




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