The meeting of Putin and Trump will bring down the dollar

11 July 2018, 10:59 | Economy
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The Russian currency is on a positive wave. High oil prices play on its side, investors have no fear of trade wars, and they are waiting for a meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia. Due to these factors, the ruble will remain afloat and may slightly strengthen in the near future. On the eve of "Russian" has made an impressive leap.

In relation to the dollar, it went up by 75 kopecks, to 61.73 rubles. The euro won the ruble even more - 89 cents, and now the price of the European currency is 72.56 rubles. Analysts say that there is nothing strange in this behavior of the Russian currency. "The ruble accelerated the growth rate in relation to foreign currencies against the backdrop of ... positive expectations from the upcoming meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, scheduled for July 16. It is the key event of the current week for the national currency, "- believes Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. In addition to the upcoming meeting of the presidents, the ruble's exchange rate is supported by expensive oil. According to ICE, yesterday the September futures for a barrel of Brent crude oil cost about $ 79. Current oil quotations on the eve fell to $ 77.58 on rumors that the US can allow some countries to buy Iranian oil after the restrictive measures against the Islamic Republic come into effect in November. Today, black gold can only get a little bit worse after the release of the OPEC report. From it, it becomes clear how much the OPEC + deal on limiting oil production can be weakened. Will affect the level of prices and statistics on reserves and production in the US. "A large data package can cause increased volatility in both oil and the Russian market. It is also important to understand that oil has experienced impressive growth in recent weeks, therefore it is very vulnerable to correction in the event of negative data on the growth of production and reserves, and may well ignore the positive report, "believes Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro.. Other analysts, however, expect that in the near future oil will remain around $ 80 per barrel, and for the Russian currency this is very good. In any case, there are more positive factors for the ruble. At the moment, the trade wars between the US and China have very limited pressure on emerging market currencies. The sentiments of investors remain far from the total "flight from risks", states the main analyst of "Binbank" Anton Pokatovich. Evgeny Fenchenko, Director of the Department for Operations in Financial Markets, "SMP Bank," agrees with him: "We are seeing an increase in prices for stocks and bonds in emerging markets, including in the Russian market, which has a positive effect on the ruble. According to our forecasts, the trend will continue for the next quarter ". Russia has stable indicators and a forecast for makrostatistiki; our country has two investment category ratings;

and in addition, the real yield in Russian assets is higher than in a number of developing countries, said Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank. Also, he said, the active phase of the dividend period helps indirectly the ruble: companies pay their profits to shareholders, buy rubles for this, the market is flooded with foreign currency, which falls in price. All this suggests that in the coming weeks the dollar will not cost more than 62-63 rubles. And maybe, the ruble will become even stronger.

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