At the auction on Friday, the dollar rate increased by 0.73%, to 63.1 rubles. , having passed for an important level of 63 rubles, and the euro has risen in price by 1.1% to 73.3 rubles. During the weekend, during single transactions, the dollar quotations exceeded the level of 64 rubles. It was not the best way to deal with Russian securities. The RTS stock index updated a two-month low, and the Russian national debt in the form of OFZ failed below the April level, when the value of Russian assets collapsed on the backdrop of the claims of the US Treasury to "Rusal". What is happening with the Russian ruble looks serious enough. It can not be ruled out that the prolonged period of stability, which led some experts and virtually all inhabitants to believe in the "teflon" nature of the Russian currency amid a general collapse in emerging markets, is drawing to a close. The grounds for fearing for the fate of the ruble are given immediately by three circumstances, meaning that the blow was struck immediately on all the main supports that guaranteed stability in the last months. So, it became finally clear that the "storm" in emerging debt markets, which caused devaluation in a number of countries, has reached Russia. This is expressed in the total lack of investor interest in OFZs. For the first time in recent years, the world prices for oil. On Friday, the market lost about 4%, which deprived the ruble of the most important support. Against the backdrop of agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, further prospects for black gold look quite alarming. The third and most unexpected factor is the statement of the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina that the Central Bank intends to refrain from further lowering the key rate. This is the second time when the Central Bank refuses to reduce the rate. Moreover, this time the regulator in addition to all hurried to warn about the risks of a twofold acceleration of inflation (up to 4 - 4.5%) due to the increase in VAT. According to Nabiullina, due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, "many countries with emerging markets are seeing a significant outflow of capital, the process will occur and we must be ready". All this led to another sell-off by Russian OFZ investors, with the placement of new issues of which the Ministry of Finance also has serious problems. What can we expect from the ruble in this situation, in the situation around which, it seems, is planned a turn? "We were expecting a turn in the foreign exchange market," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. - The ruble last week was supported by foreigners who came to the World Cup in football. But all who wanted to come and buy the Russian national currency have already done this. Meanwhile, on the global financial markets, the storm. Namely: the currencies of developing countries are falling sharply here. Investors are running into reliable dollars. In addition, gasoline into the fire splashed with Neglinna from the Central Bank. Judging by the latest comments from officials, because of the rise in taxes and a jump in gasoline prices, we are expecting a sharp acceleration of inflation. This is bad news for the economy as a whole and for the domestic ruble. However, the mark of 65 rubles per dollar is still an important level of resistance. It is unlikely that speculators will be able to break it up too quickly ". So, what do we have in the dry balance at the beginning of a new week? Obviously, undermining the stability of the ruble in the recent period, namely:

the final imbalance of the state debt market, which threatens to cover Russia with a wave of devaluation of currencies in developing countries. In addition, we have a sharply depreciating oil, high prices for which for a long time did not give the ruble to decline against the backdrop of problems with public debt. And also, the ruble is awaiting tests related to the change in monetary policy by the Central Bank of Russia. All this together becomes a sufficient basis for changing the current ruble trend.