Ruble jerked up due to oil

14 June 2018, 12:03 | Economy
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The Russian currency managed to reverse the negative course of events.

Despite the pessimistic forecasts, the ruble rate started to grow. In this "Russian" helped by black gold. At the auction on Wednesday, June 13, the US dollar rate to close the main trades was 62.32 rubles, which is 50 kopecks below the closing level of the previous day. The euro at the same time was worth 73.42 rubles, dropping by 61 kopecks. Today, this trend has chances to continue. The main factor in shaping the value of the ruble was the price of oil. The cost of a barrel of Brent brand rose 2% on the eve, to $ 76.85. The price increase was promoted by the report of the US Department of Energy, which affected the reduction in oil and petroleum products over the past week. Market participants ignored the increase in production of black gold, which for the past week increased by 100 thousand. barrels, up to 10.9 million barrels. The growth of the dollar against the background of an increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve System by 0.25 percentage points (to 1.75-2% per annum) was short-lived. Investors predicted this scenario, and therefore the expectations have already been laid in the value of American currency. As a result of rising oil prices, it was easy to break the trend. The impetus that gave the ruble high prices for hydrocarbon raw materials turned out to be so powerful that the market did not even notice the unsuccessful results of the auction for the placement of government debt securities. The proceeds from the placement of federal loan bonds for 20 billion rubles was only 19.1 billion rubles. Thus, the Finance Ministry did not get 0.9 million rubles - this indicates that OFZs have become less attractive to foreign investors. Usually on such news the ruble is heading down, but now it was not due to oil. Another negative for the dollar (and therefore, positive for the ruble) was the newly rumored rumors about the approaching trade war between China and the United States. According to rumors, the administration of the US President is preparing next week to begin charging duties on Chinese goods for tens of millions of dollars.

However, the final decision in this regard Donald Trump has not yet accepted. Analysts say that there will be no sharp jumps in the ruble rate in the near future. The dollar / ruble pair will remain in the range of 61.70-63.25 rubles. "Trade in the side corridor may drag on until June 23, until the meeting of OPEC +.

When oil traders are determined with the direction of oil prices, then we can expect the pair / dollar to exit the range, "said Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. Despite the huge amount of negativity in the market, serious fluctuations in the exchange rate should not be expected, believes eToro analyst in Russia and the CIS, Mikhail Mashchenko. In his opinion, in the current situation, the further depreciation of the ruble to 63.5 rubles per dollar in the short term looks more likely and further attempts to leave above 64 rubles, which may well prove successful in the absence of positive news.

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