The rubbish was promised an early funeral

09 June 2018, 10:19 | Economy
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Wooden again experiencing problems. On Friday, the Russian currency pawned a sharp peak, jumped to noon almost to the level of 63 rubles per dollar (62.93 rubles / dollar). Not the best way things were developing on the Russian stock market, where the RTS index collapsed at once by 2.4%. Experts agree that the reason for the collapse was another sale of Russian government bonds, arranged by foreign investors. The latter bought them for many months in order to get the difference in interest rates. The index of the Russian national debt RGBI, reflecting the dynamics of government bond prices, fell 0.3 points on Thursday and 0.5 points on Friday. And, yesterday the collapse occurred in just 4 hours of trading. All this led to the fact that the price of the Russian national debt returned to the levels to which it fell in April on news about sanctions against "Rusal". Then, for two days, foreign investors withdrew a record 52 billion rubles from Russian bonds. In total, since the beginning of this week, the RGBI index has collapsed by 0.69%, having demonstrated the third record fall for the last 2.5 years. "There is an opinion that the wave of falling of the public debt markets of developing countries from Turkey and Brazil has come to us," explained analyst of the FC Kalita-finance Dmitry Golubovsky. Recall that the markets of these and a number of other developing countries have experienced a grand collapse of the national debt and devaluation of national currencies, which is associated with the flight of foreign investors. If what is happening today is the consequences of the fact that the wave has come to Russia, then the prospect of a collapse of the Russian state debt does not look ghostly. Sales in the market of the Russian national debt in recent days are quite palpable, and this creates additional pressure on the ruble. The most alarming signal was the results of this week's auction, during which the Russian Ministry of Finance failed to place the proposed securities in full. This is a sign of a lack of interest in them from foreign investors, who for a long time were its main support. And here the prospects are not the most rosy. The European Central Bank, following the US Federal Reserve, is beginning to gradually dismantle a quantitative easing program based on high availability and cheapness of money. Now they are striving for the normalization of monetary policy and next week they can announce plans to curtail programs to stimulate the economy. This will be a signal for investors to get rid of the assets of developing countries as quickly as possible. In this case, the wave sweeping Turkey and Brazil will return again, only this time in the form of a tsunami. It will not bypass Russia with its OFZ and ruble. "If the" wave "before us really comes, then I do not exclude that the dollar will still call at 65 rubles. "Triangle," in which the dollar-ruble consolidated from the April slump, was punctured yesterday, "said Dmitry Golubovsky. And this means that the disposition on the ruble / dollar is as follows: 65 rubles per dollar, then down at 60, and then already up on new highs, at 72-75 rubles per dollar. This is a very likely option ".

Equally significant for the ruble factor will remain the policy of the Ministry of Finance, which continues to buy currency. Some time ago, the chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said about the same thing as the heads of the ECB and the Fed, namely, that the Central Bank of Russia is ready to complete the easing of monetary policy, which is due to end this year. Consequently, this and the actions of the Ministry of Finance will become the most powerful factor of pressure on the ruble. With all the ensuing consequences.

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