In the coming years, the world can expect a new global financial crisis. This conclusion was reached by the World Bank's survey "Global Economic Perspectives".
And if in the next couple of years there will be no major shocks, but after 2019 the situation could deteriorate sharply. The organization believes that this is due to the slowdown in the global economy. If in 2017-2018 the world economy grew by about 3.1% of GDP per year, by 2020 it will decrease to 2.9% of GDP per year. Analysts of the World Bank in slowing economic growth see the main reason for protectionist policies. Such a position is expressed by the acting chief economist of the World Bank, Shantayanan Devaradjan. "The protectionist threat clouds the clouds over economic growth. If these threats result in trade wars, the consequences can be devastating, "he says.. In addition, WB experts note that global financial crises occur regularly about once in a decade - 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. Despite the fact that the world economy has just recovered from the consequences of the latter, a time of a new crisis is coming. The document refers to a higher degree of debt compared to the one that was observed before the fall of 2008. Therefore, now most of the states are very sensitive to unexpected changes in US monetary policy. The risk of default can only grow as a result of tightening monetary policy, the outflow of money from developing countries in favor of developed and rapidly depreciating currencies. Another factor that threatens the world's finances is geopolitical. It is connected with a difficult situation on the Korean peninsula, the Middle East and with the relations of the Russian Federation with the United States and the countries of the European Union. Risks are caused by changes in the field of world politics. Among them, WB analysts called these:.
an increase in the role of populism, the mood of the anti-globalization and the "polarization of public opinion".
About the impending crisis recently warned American billionaire and financier George Soros. The main reasons for the future economic turmoil, he called the decision of US President Donald Trump on the withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the "destruction" of the trans-Atlantic alliance between the EU and the US. In his opinion, this will entail devaluation of the currencies of developing countries. Another negative phenomenon Soros considered the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union.