The ruble has a bright band

25 May 2018, 14:27 | Economy
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The Russian currency has excellent prospects. In the near future, it can significantly improve its positions relative to major world currencies. This will happen due to high oil prices and low inflation. On the eve, on May 24, the dollar and euro strengthened against the ruble - by 27 and 47 kopeks, respectively. Today, the currency quotes remain virtually unchanged. Since the beginning of the trading session, the dollar has fallen in price by half a penny, to 61.6 rubles, the euro rose by 2.5 kopecks, to 72.2 rubles. Yesterday the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell a little, but traders reacted to this with restraint, so the ruble almost did not weaken. In addition, the ruble continues to draw strength from the tax period. Therefore, as a whole, he manages to maintain his positions. "High oil prices, attractive interest rates and Russian assets have a positive impact on the ruble. Despite this, after the completion of the tax period (May 28), market participants will again shift the focus of attention to geopolitics. In this regard, the ruble will keep the lateral movement towards the dollar and the euro with a subsequent decline, "- said the analyst of the company" Alpari "Vladislav Antonov. At the moment, the ruble continues to be crushed by the outflow of money from emerging markets. Global players experience a decrease in appetite for risky assets. Therefore, the currencies of developing countries are falling, despite the increase in key rates. The ruble can also get into this trend. At the same time, economists say that in the current situation, the Russian currency has every chance of growing. If the Central Bank manages to curb the acceleration of inflation, which was outlined by the rise in oil quotations, then monetary policy will be mitigated. "As a result, a favorable situation for Russian assets. Inflation will be restrained, the cycle of reducing the key rate of the bank of Russia will continue, and at the same time the potential for strengthening the ruble is still preserved. The combination of these factors is favorable for continuing purchases of ruble debt, "- said Investment Analyst of Global FX Ivan Karjakin.

The aggressive policy of the United States on the world stage allows oil prices to remain at a high level. Washington continues tough rhetoric against Iran and threatens to impose sanctions against Venezuela. This is good for the ruble. If the US releases negative statistics, the fall of the dollar will also support the Russian currency. In short, if there are no sharp shocks like the next imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation, the ruble has excellent chances to consolidate.




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