Black gold beats records of value, but it does not have such a strong impact on the exchange rate of the Russian currency. The reason for this is a number of negative factors that prevent the ruble from getting stronger. At Friday's trading, fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies against the ruble were minimal. The dollar has risen in price by 7 cents, to 62.25 rubles, the euro has fallen in price by 3 kopecks, to 73.27 rubles. Considering that last week the barrel of Brent crude oil reached the level of $ 80, such a ruble's price looks understated. Analysts say that the Russian currency was quite able to rise to 55-60 rubles for $ 1, and four years ago at similar oil quotations the unit of the American currency did not cost 48 rubles. But now this is impossible. First, the currencies of developing countries as a whole look very weak compared to the dollar. American Treasury bonds demonstrate good profitability, and therefore investors willingly invest in them, dropping assets of the Third World countries, which is bad for the exchange rate of their currencies. Many developing economies are forced to adjust their monetary policy - raise the discount rate or refuse to further reduce it. Russia can follow this path. "In the summer, the Russian regulator is unlikely to decide on easing monetary policy. Against the backdrop of rising prices for gasoline and imported products, the risk of dispersing inflation to 4-5% has increased, "notes Roman Tkachuk, Alpari's senior analyst. The second factor is closely related to the first: players are in such a hurry to buy US securities, which ignore Russian federal loan bonds. In recent times, the Ministry of Finance has placed securities worth 15 billion rubles, and buyers were found only at 6.4 billion. Thirdly, Russian authorities, as well as companies, banks and citizens hand over rubles and buy foreign currency. The Ministry of Finance buys a daily currency for reserves of 16.1 billion rubles. Naturally, the ruble is very difficult to stay at an acceptable level, when everyone turns away from it. Fourth, the pressure on the Russian currency continues to have a negative geopolitical background. Representatives of the US State Department and the White House every now and then start talking about new sanctions against Russia. Washington may impose a ban on the purchase of Russian securities. Alternatively, sanctions can be imposed on energy projects (first of all, on Nord Stream-2). "This is a financial war. In this case, the ruble will be under strong pressure.

In our opinion, the USA will not take such extreme measures, but the expansion of sanctions in one form or another is possible, "Tkachuk believes.. All this combination of factors negates the positive impact that rising oil could have on the ruble exchange rate. If the black gold does not go far beyond $ 80 (and there is no prerequisite for this, alas), the Russian currency will slowly drift downwards. By early summer, the dollar can grow to 65 rubles, the euro - up to 75 rubles. In the event of an additional negative, the "Russian" will weaken much faster.