And this despite some breathing space, which began at the beginning of this century, when the birth rate in Russia exceeded mortality. According to the latest data contained in the annual report of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, Russia is on the threshold of the largest demographic catastrophe since the Second World War. It is expected that the rate of population decline in the next two decades will triple. So, since the beginning of the 1990s, the Russian Federation has lost almost 4 million people, then by 2050. the country will miss another 12 million of its citizens. As a result, by the middle of this century, the number will decrease from the current 144.8 million to the level of the early 1970s. in the RSFSR and will be about 132 million people. Since these are UN data, they do not include the population of the Crimea, which is more than 2 million people, which, however, does not change the general vector in any way. It is noteworthy that in large cities demographic changes will be little appreciable. On the contrary, the UN believes that the urban population may even increase from 107 to 110 million people. At the same time, the regions of the country, especially the rural and the most remote, will suffer a real catastrophe. According to UN estimates, the rural population will decline by almost 40% - from 36.8 to 22.1 million people. Demographic problems in Russia are recorded not only in the UN. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the natural decline in the population is recorded for the second consecutive year: in 2017, the birth rate fell by almost 11%. Over the past year in the Russian Federation was born about 1.7 million children, which is 203 thousand less than in 2016. The rate of falling fertility was three times higher and became a record since 2011. - 198,8 thousand people. The only region of the country where there was not a decline in the birth rate was Chechnya (where it remained at the same level). Although the death rate in the country for 2017 g. also decreased (by 66.7 thousand people, to 1.887 million), this did not block the natural decline in the population. It is fixed, according to Rosstat, for the second year in a row: the rate of falling fertility was three times higher and became record since 2011. - 198,8 thousand people. "The situation from the point of view of demography is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose approximately 800,000 working-age people annually because of the demographic structure," said Maxim Oreshkin, head of the Ministry of Economic Development, in January this year. Simple mathematical calculations show that if the population decline does indeed occur at the pace predicted by the minister, then the 2200s. the number of the Russian ethnos will approach zero. This does not mean that in 200 years the vast territory of the country will be emptied. On the contrary, there are many who wish to occupy the released habitats, but only these will be completely different people who come from very different places. As for the main reasons for Russia's demographic problems, they differ little from the global. The first and most important of these is the upcoming urbanization. Megacities swiftly absorb villages and small towns, as well as entire agricultural regions. Reduction of the rural population is also accompanied by socio-economic degradation of those who still decided to stay in the countryside. And this generates the next wave - degeneration of the village itself. In turn, life in a metropolis imposes on people an appropriate model of behavior, built on exhausting work, constant stress, and living in cramped conditions, which definitely does not contribute to high fertility.

This trend is not unique to Russia, in most developed countries in megacities, on average, there is just over one child per family. However, the tendency to reduce the population there is not so pronounced due to the high life expectancy of people.

In Russia this factor practically does not work, and the mortality of the population in megacities is also quite high here. There are many reasons for this, including high social stratification and the lack of access to quality medicine for many. His negative role is played by a large number of criminal deaths, deaths from accidents, suicides, drug and alcohol use.

The trend towards depopulation, without a doubt, is the main threat to Russia as a state in the medium and long term.

According to many experts, no significant measures are currently being taken to prevent the disaster in the Russian Federation. The attempts to stimulate fertility (mostly unsuccessful) are only a small and far from the most important part of the process of combating depopulation.

To stop the spread of negative processes, it is necessary to work on their main cause. That is, first of all, it is necessary to put under control the process of urbanization. Experts say this more often, but real measures in this direction are taken only in rare cases and rare countries.

Unwillingness to notice the problem is largely due to the fact that uncontrolled urbanization is part of the prevailing socio-economic model today, which makes it possible to make good money on what is happening in a narrow group of persons who are endowed with power or with it.

However, the viciousness of this system today can already be heard even from the lips of some representatives of this very cohort.

"The funnel, which was created at the time of the commodity boom, which people have dragged out here, it will not," said in February 2016.

billionaire Oleg Deripaska. - And with Moscow you need to seriously think, do not expand it, and settle ".

Then no one gave special attention to these words. However, the time is passing and it is not ruled out that in the next 10 to 15 years not only Moscow, but also many other megacities will have to settle. With one goal only - to survive.