The collapse of the Russian national debt was rehearsed in Africa

16 May 2018, 09:11 | Economy
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In five days, net sales of South African bonds totaled 15 billion rand ($ 1.23 billion), which is the maximum value since 2008. , reports Bloomberg. Why are we talking about what is happening in the market of a far and little known country, which is also in another hemisphere? And only because the state bonds of South Africa are practically twin brothers of Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ), thanks to active speculation with which foreign currency investments continue to flow to Russia. Remaining de facto developing, our country is equated by investors to the same South Africa, Turkey, and to a lesser extent - Brazil. It is for this reason that experts can not ignore the events taking place in the markets of these "fraternal" countries, since they are a kind of rehearsal of what may soon happen in Russia itself. Recall that the government bonds of South Africa, speculators bought up with about the same excitement as the Russian OFZ. Moreover, it can be said that the South African bonds competed with their Russian "brothers" for the money of investors. Both those and other papers were massively bought in the framework of the trade-exchange operations, when funds from developed countries with lower interest rates flowed into developing countries with higher. "The Russian debt market is very similar to the market of South Africa, and therefore, the ruble exchange rate often behaves very similar to the South African rand," explained the analyst of FC Kalita-finance Dmitry Golubovsky. - This dump is connected with the fact that the yield on ten-year securities again tries to exceed 3%. I believe that we are also awaiting the sale of government bonds, as a result of which the ruble will be deposited. This will be the culmination of. In the long term, I advised and advise: stay away from Russian securities. I believe that the sale in our market can happen before the end of the month, when the dollar can once again visit the mark of 65 rubles ". Thus, the fall in the country's national currency, be it a South African rand or the Russian ruble, will be proportional to the volumes of bonds being dropped by foreigners. The continued growth in the yields of US Treasury bonds, along with the global aversion of investors to increasing country risks, led to a trend towards withdrawing funds from emerging markets. This means that their flow from the rand and the ruble to the dollar will only increase. Here the scale of the consequences directly depends on the volume of foreign speculative investments.

In government bonds of South Africa, it is 51%, while the critical level is considered to be a value of 30%. In Russia, according to the Central Bank, the volume of the federal loan market (OFZ) as of April 1, 2018 was 6.813 trillion rubles. , while the share of non-residents in it reached 34.5%, updating the next maximum mark, and amounted to 2.351 trillion rubles.

And this means that when the wave of sales finally comes to Russia, its consequences for OFZ and ruble will be, to put it mildly, unpleasant.

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