The oligarchs will push the ruble into the abyss

15 May 2018, 14:40 | Economy
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The ruble feels confident in the foreign exchange market. But it will not be able to significantly strengthen its position vis-a-vis the weakening US dollar. This will prevent negative external factors and the policy of the Russian authorities. At today's auction on the Moscow Stock Exchange there is complete calm. The ruble fell 3 kopecks to the dollar (to 61.88 rubles), and the euro rate did not change at all compared to yesterday's closing level - 73.78 rubles. Experts predict that in the coming days, or even weeks, the ruble will gradually go up. However, the growth potential of it is not so great, notes "Newspaper. RU". In early May, against the backdrop of high oil prices for a short period, it seemed that the ruble began to strengthen. The approach of the tax period is approaching (on May 25 - the deadline for the payment of severance tax, and May 28 - income tax), however, both rising oil prices and the purchase of rubles by exporters for settlements with the state can contribute only to short-term strengthening of the national currency. In addition, black gold may fall from today's $ 78 to $ 75 per barrel from day to day. In the United States, the number of operating rigs has been increasing for six weeks now, and Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Tehran has already been won. "From a fundamental point of view, the Russian ruble at current oil prices looks oversold by any metric. Although the ruble has room for strengthening, especially during the tax period in the second half of May, there are now too many factors that contribute to the weakening of the national currency, "said Vasily Karpunin, head of the stock market experts at BKS Broker. To the unpleasant for the ruble factors can be attributed the overall decline in the value of the currencies of developing countries amid high interest rates on US securities (now they are about 3%). Investors were more profitable to invest in reliable US government bonds, that's the demand for rubles and other currencies and fell. Recently, from the debt securities of developing countries brought about $ 1 billion. Its negative role will be played by the Russian authorities. First, the RF Ministry of Finance buys a daily foreign currency worth about 16 billion rubles. "Until the end of May, the intervention will not go anywhere, which means that the dollar will not be no lower than 62.8-61.5 rubles," said analyst of Alor Broker Alexei Antonov. Secondly, the pressure on the ruble renders an attraction of unprecedented generosity in the form of state support measures for companies that fall under American sanctions (Rusal, GAZ Group, Renova, Power Machines). They and other exporters can be allowed to refinance in state-owned banks loans previously taken abroad and grant the right not to return foreign exchange earnings to Russia. Such a measure could lead to a reduction in the inflow of currency to Russia. This will be an additional negative factor for the ruble. "Since the release of this law, the currency will be in an even greater deficit, as companies under sanctions (suddenly!

) Will insure their assets abroad," said Alexander Shustov, Director General of Mani Fanny. There are practically no hopes for the ruble. Because of sanctions, exports fell, so exporters, in order not to lose profits, are interested in keeping the value of the national currency low. Will not save the upcoming World Cup. Foreign fans are expected to bring in Russia from $ 0.5 to $ 2 billion, but their demand for Russian currency will not block the proposal of the Ministry of Finance.

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