The US currency is weakening in the eyes. It loses its positions to major world currencies, which has a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate.
On the eve of the Moscow Stock Exchange, the "American" sank to the Russian currency at 8 kopecks, falling to a level of 61.85 rubles. Euro meanwhile lost 19 kopecks in price, dropping to 73.78 rubles. Today, analysts expect the banquet to continue. "The weakening of the dollar raises commodity prices and contributes to the return of appetite for risky assets and emerging markets," believes the executive director of ICBF Maxim Efremov. According to him, the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate is heavily influenced by statistical data. Just today, May 15, in the US there will be data on retail sales and, if they are worse than expected, this will further weaken the dollar against the currencies of other countries. If the events develop according to this scenario, the ruble will grow towards the dollar and further. However, this growth will not be rapid. In the coming days, the "green" will remain in the range of 61.2-61.8 rubles, and only by the end of the week, under favorable circumstances, the ruble will be able to squeeze it out of the border 61 rubles. The euro is likely to remain in the range of 73-74 rubles. Strengthening the ruble helps and rising oil prices. Demand for it increased on news about mass protests in Palestine against the opening of the US embassy in Jerusalem, as well as on statements by Donald Trump about the readiness to significantly limit the volumes of oil and oil products purchased from Iran. In addition, OPEC increased the forecast for oil demand this year. As a result, the closing of the trading session in the United States, the cost of Brent crude oil rose to $ 78.5, and the cost of oil futures rose to a record level since 2014. Other factors will not influence the exchange rate of foreign currencies this week. More precisely, their influence will compensate each other.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Finance plans to spend $ 323 billion on purchases of dollars and euros from additional revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. On the other hand, there comes a tax period, and exporters will buy rubles in order to pay off the state. "Because of high oil prices, the Russian currency is in good demand. In the coming days, it will be supported by the tax period. Since the ruble now has good allies, it is likely that the dynamics of ruble pairs will continue at current levels, "- analysts of Alpari company Vladislav Antonov shares the positive forecast.