The economist explained why the Crimean bridge "will fall on the shoulders" of Russians

11 May 2018, 19:20 | Economy
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53 billion rubles - is it an estimate of what or the costs for what period? The safety of any facility, including the infrastructure facility, must be ensured continuously. What is the task of the occupants to "ensure the security of the Crimean bridge"? They see this as protection against the non-existent terrorist threat; Ensure safe operation or look at this issue in a comprehensive manner? The period in which the occupants are going to exploit the Crimean bridge is unknown to us. Although we understand, for a long time this operation of the facility will not last. They are still counting on official rhetoric that the exploitation of this object forever, the Crimean economist wrote on the Observer, a migrant, an expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs charitable fund Yuri Smelyansky.

In Russia, it's a common thing to do something, they plan something, post-Soviet and imperial thinking is tied to some dates by the beginning or end of the processes. The same is observed in the issue of the beginning of the operation of the Crimean bridge. Wanted to "cut the ribbon" in May 2018 to another inauguration of Putin - postponed. Why transferred? Because there is nothing to "cut". The bridge is not ready for operation.

Now there have been statements that it is necessary to conduct some more work, that difficulties have arisen and they plan to ensure security until December 2019. That this includes "ensuring security", in a sense, remains a mystery. Since in this case, security for Russian reality means, including - secrecy. Therefore, we can draw, at this point in time, the following conclusion: the bridge is not ready for operation. Neither for operation for passenger cars, nor for passenger (buses), nor even for operation for trucks (goods transport). The invaders already said earlier that passenger cars will be started first (these statements continue to sound in connection with May 2018) and passenger transportation. And then after a while the cargo. On the railway communication, too, is still in the future. Since, most likely, those Russian specialists are correct who say that if the freight train trains go in this transition, it will immediately collapse. Perhaps the Russian authorities also do not have confidence that such estimates are implausible, t. there are some risks, but they usually do not talk about them in Russia, from the point of view of the rhetoric of the authorities. The only thing, it is possible to repeat the conclusions about which we have already spoken repeatedly.

The maximum amount of effort, resources and resources the Kremlin leadership will attach to making the bridge at least run. But to cut a ribbon - does not mean to put into operation. This is a purely public move. Yes, Russia needs this bridge from the point of view of military-strategic importance. Some level of exploitation they still plan on it, while it will hold on. How much he will hold on is a big question.

And now the question of the economy of this bridge. In it, "economy" was not originally, even before the war, when the construction of this bridge was raised. There is no it, especially, and now. Because the "economy of an infrastructure object" implies that for any bridge transition, the flows of cargo, the flows of passengers that form the economy of a specific infrastructure facility, are moving in opposite directions. But if with the passenger traffic still somehow, someone will drive all the same in one and the other direction. People in Russia do not mind. From the point of view of cargoes, yes, the Crimea will carry loads of military-strategic importance and what is necessary for minimal support of vital activity in the region. And in the opposite direction, to the Russian mainland, there is nothing to carry the Crimea.

All the loud slogans that the Crimea will feed Russia, Syria, other friendly countries of Africa that recognize the Crimea as Russian, are just another PR move. Nothing else. And than the occupied Crimea will be the above-named feed?.

Here is one of the latest statements published officially on the website of what the invaders call the "Crimean government", already says that the good times, when there was enough rain, as the only source of fresh water supply for the occupied territory, ended. In 2018, a drought is already expected. During the autumn-winter period and the spring of 2018, Crimea received only 50% of the precipitation from the required volume. Accordingly, all winter and spring crops are threatened with death. And there is no water - there are no vegetables and fruits, respectively. the question is not whether to export somewhere and feed someone, as if to the occupied Crimea, to feed himself, which he could not do 100% before the occupation. It's no secret that before the occupation some of the products for ensuring the food security of the Crimea were still imported from the mainland of Ukraine. This is a consequence of geographical and natural climatic features of the Crimean peninsula and some issues of the economic development of the peninsula.

The operation of a bridge is not only physical security or safety from physical damage. This is operational maintenance of the facility in the winter. for example. Protection of the mapping of ice hummocks, t. at least two icebreakers, which must be on duty there on a regular basis. These are issues of protection against freezing (icing) of the roadway, both road and rail - it must be heated. These are issues of compensation for the difference in sea and air temperatures, which can destroy the supports - it is necessary to maintain the temperature balance. The direction of operational costs, in the process of functioning of the facility, a lot. There is a question of financial maintenance of operation of object. If my memory does not change, then the annual maintenance content (then they were still unguarded), this is 500 million rubles a year. And now we add 53 billion to security, and it is unclear for what period of time these costs are calculated. We get, the operation of this infrastructure facility is very expensive "economic pleasure", which, as a result, will simply fall on the shoulders of all taxpayers in Russia so that Putin can boast that he made a certain promise, and he fulfilled it. At least once. If he does it to the end, that too remains a question.

For example. If we take as a basis:.

1) The amount of operational costs for the functioning of the Kerch bridge, which were declared, in the amount of 500 million Russian rubles.

2) Compensation value of 10 rubles per ton of goods transported. This is the additional cost, which should reimburse the cost of operating the facility. Any increase in this additional cost increases the final cost of the goods carried.

It turns out that in order to compensate for the declared cost of maintaining the Kerch bridge during the calendar year, the capacity of the bridge should be 50 million tons of cargo or 2. 5 million 20 ton trucks per year. Or 1250000 20 ton trucks a year in one direction. With the proportional distribution of freight flows. Or 3425 20 ton trucks in one direction per day.

Even such a superficial calculation shows that there is no economic effect from the functioning of the bridge crossing. And it was not planned by the invaders.




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